Italy's parliament set to vote on new electoral law

Italy's parliament is set to vote on a new electoral law this Thursday, which would grant extra seats to any party or coalition securing more than 42 percent of seats in both parliamentary chambers, effectively guaranteeing a majority.

The proposed legislation, put forward by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, aims to provide greater stability in Italy's often fragmented political landscape. However, critics argue that the move is actually designed to bolster her own chances in elections next year.

Italy currently employs a mixed electoral system for its 600-seat parliament, with around one-third of members elected directly through constituency votes and the remaining seats allocated via proportional representation. This system, known as "Rosatellum, has been in place since 2017 and promotes coalition-building but can result in fractured outcomes that make forming a governing majority difficult.

The new law would reward parties or coalitions achieving significant electoral success with extra seats, allowing them to secure a solid majority and potentially reducing the need for complex coalition negotiations.

The proposed legislation would see a significant shift in Italy's electoral system, replacing the current mixed model with a fully proportional one. This change aims to reward parties or coalitions that achieve substantial electoral success by awarding them extra seats.

In the lower house, known as the Chamber of Deputies, this bonus could amount to up to 70 additional seats out of a total of 400 members. The Senate, comprising 200 elected representatives, would also see an increase in seats awarded to the winning party or coalition, with a maximum of 35 extra seats available.

The new law's provisions are designed to give the winner of the election a strong mandate to govern, assuming they secure at least 42 percent of the vote in both chambers. If no single party or coalition meets this threshold, representation would be allocated proportionally among all participating parties.

The reform also introduces a requirement for coalitions to announce their prime ministerial candidates before the elections, which could potentially lead to internal conflicts and divisions within certain blocs.

The proposed electoral reform has cleared its first hurdle in the Italian Senate and is now set for a final vote in the Chamber of Deputies.

Political analysts predict that the law will pass, which would grant election winners bonus seats in parliament, potentially giving them a disproportionate level of power.

Opponents of the legislation argue that it undermines democratic principles by allowing a winning coalition to dominate parliament. Critics also claim that the reform is designed to favor Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, which is facing a tough electoral battle next year.

Some critics have gone so far as to call the law anti-democratic", warning that it could grant a minority bloc a significant majority in parliament if implemented.

The proposed law would grant election winners a bonus of additional parliamentary seats based on their performance in the polls.

This could lead to an unstable parliament if implemented, as even minor changes in coalition composition could tip the balance between a clear majority and political deadlock.

According to Politico's polling aggregator, Meloni's Fdl is currently leading with 27 percent support, ahead of all other parties. Her coalition partners, Lega and Forza Italia, have a combined 12 percent support, bringing their total share to 39 percent.

The Democratic Party (PD) is in second place with 21 percent support, followed by the Five Star Movement (M5S) with 12 percent, while the Alliance of Greens and Left (AVS) has 6 percent.

The proposed electoral law in Italy has sparked controversy over its potential to give election winners bonus seats. Recent simulations by the CISE have shown that a centre-left coalition could potentially reach 44 percent of the vote, securing a comfortable parliamentary majority.

However, this outcome is not guaranteed and could change if Giorgia Meloni's party allies with National Future. According to Emanuele, the reform does not inherently favour the incumbent government, but rather its effects will depend on how competing coalitions are formed, making it unpredictable in terms of who benefits from the bonus seats.