Ukraine Claims to Have Broken Russia's Ability to Launch Successful Offensive

Ukraine's former commander-in-chief, Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, has claimed that his country has broken Russia's ability to launch a successful offensive in Ukraine. According to him, this is largely due to the significant number of Russian soldiers being killed.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Gen Syrskyi spoke publicly for the first time since he was removed from his post in the summer. He addressed criticism surrounding his leadership style, which some had described as "old school and unsuitable for Ukraine's modern military forces.

Some soldiers who previously served under Gen Syrskyi also shared their experiences with the BBC, alleging that they were ordered to remain at their positions even when surrounded by Russian troops. This led to significant losses on both sides.

Gen Syrskyi disputed these claims, but acknowledged that Ukraine's military has indeed inflicted substantial losses on Russia throughout the conflict. He stated that Moscow's overall losses are six times higher than Ukraine's, with some estimates suggesting this figure could be as high as 11 times when only considering the number of dead soldiers.

The general's analysis suggests that Russia's struggling military has lost its ability to launch a decisive offensive against Ukraine. This is evident in the relatively small amount of territory Moscow has managed to seize over the past six months. According to the general, Russia has gained control of just 61 square kilometers since the start of 2026.

The Institute for Study of War (ISW) has corroborated this assessment with its own findings. A recent report by the organization notes that in September 2026, Russia lost more ground than it was able to capture. This trend indicates a significant shift in momentum on the battlefield, with Ukraine's forces seemingly gaining the upper hand.

The general's words are backed up by data showing that Russia has been unable to make significant gains on the front lines. Instead of pushing forward, Ukrainian forces have focused on containing Russian advances and targeting weak points in their opponents' defenses.

In a further sign of the changing dynamics at play, Ukraine's military has adopted a more cautious approach to combat operations. By focusing on stabilizing the front line rather than launching large-scale offensives, Ukrainian commanders are able to conserve resources and wear down their opponents over time.

The general's assessment is likely to be closely watched by observers in Kyiv and beyond, particularly given his previous successes as commander-in-chief. His tenure was marked by a series of significant victories against Russian forces, including the successful defense of Kyiv in 2022.

The former top general of Kyiv's military has spoken out about his disagreements with Ukraine's defense minister during the war against Russia. The issues centered around the procurement of essential supplies and equipment for the army, which Syrskyi believed were not being prioritized effectively by Fedorov.

Specifically, Syrskyi pointed to a lack of balance in the distribution of resources, where drones received significant attention while other critical items like unmanned ground vehicles, pick-up trucks, and motorbikes were overlooked. He claimed that even with drones, the army struggled to receive sufficient quantities, often getting only half of what was needed.

Fedorov's focus on digital and technological initiatives had made him a popular figure in Ukraine, but Syrskyi took issue with this approach, suggesting it came at the expense of traditional military capabilities. Critics had accused Syrskyi of being out of touch with the changing nature of modern warfare, but he countered that his leadership was instrumental in achieving significant victories against Russian forces.

Despite these successes, including the defense of Kyiv and deep strikes behind enemy lines, Ukraine's troops faced setbacks under Syrskyi's command. Chaotic withdrawals from key cities like Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Pokrovsk led to criticism that soldiers were left exposed to Russian attacks due to poor planning.

Syrskyi acknowledged that mistakes had been made during these operations, including the failure to evacuate troops in a timely manner. Soldiers who spoke out about their experiences claimed they were ordered to remain at their posts until it was too late, leaving them vulnerable to encirclement by enemy forces.

The Ukrainian military has faced significant challenges on the front line, but its former top general insists that Kyiv's forces have been able to adapt and respond effectively.

According to Syrskyi, Ukraine was at a severe disadvantage in terms of military resources, with a ratio of jets and bombs that favoured Russia by 18 to one in 2025. Additionally, Russia had two-and-a-half times more artillery pieces and shells than Ukraine, giving them a significant advantage on the battlefield.

One notable example of this disparity is the Kursk operation, which saw Ukrainian forces launch an incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August 2024. Although the operation ultimately ended in retreat, Syrskyi defended it as a necessity, arguing that it had disrupted Russian forces and forced Moscow to redirect troops.

The Kursk incursion also gave Ukraine a much-needed respite, allowing its stretched brigades in the east and south to recover from intense fighting. By disrupting Russia's offensive momentum, Ukraine was able to gain some breathing room and regroup its forces for future battles.

Syrskyi has expressed concern that European allies may be underestimating the threat posed by Russia, advising them to start preparing for war now and drop all illusions that [it] will not come.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is expected to become increasingly reliant on advanced technologies such as robots, automated systems, and artificial intelligence.

This shift towards technological warfare will not only enhance the capabilities of conventional weapons but also introduce new defensive measures like active systems of defence" designed to protect armoured vehicles from enemy fire. According to Syrskyi, both Russia and Ukraine are racing to develop these technologies in an effort to gain a strategic advantage on the battlefield.

Despite the growing reliance on technology, human control will remain essential for effective combat operations as people will be needed to oversee and direct the operation of advanced systems.