Global Temperatures on Track to Surpass 1.5°C Threshold

Global temperatures are on track to surpass the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, a milestone that was previously seen as a target for limiting climate change. This reality has been acknowledged by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), which now views the goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C as unattainable.

The UNEP's shift in stance is significant because it reflects the growing consensus among scientists and policymakers that the world's efforts to limit global warming have fallen short. Despite the Paris Agreement, which was signed by nearly all countries in 2015, many of the largest emitters have failed to meet their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The planet has been responding as expected to rising carbon emissions, with global temperatures continuing to climb. The current El Niño event is exacerbating this trend, and it appears likely that we will exceed the 1.5°C threshold even if we use conservative estimates of pre-industrial temperatures.

Different datasets used to track global temperatures yield varying results, but most indicate that we are very close to or have already surpassed the 1.5°C milestone. The UNEP's new approach focuses on reducing the duration and magnitude of exceeding this limit, rather than avoiding it altogether.

The removal of hundreds of gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will be necessary to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. This will require dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the development and deployment of technologies capable of large-scale carbon capture and removal.

The UN's climate projections suggest that global temperatures will soon surpass the 1.5°C threshold, marking a significant departure from the Paris Agreement's goal. This is not due to any technical glitch or error in measurement, but rather because of the stubborn persistence of high temperatures despite efforts to reduce emissions.

According to UNEP's latest report, decades of inadequate climate action have led to this unavoidable outcome. The report maintains that it is still possible to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C limit if countries make informed decisions today. However, this would require a significant shift in policy and practice.

The Paris Agreement relied on signatory nations setting and expanding their emissions-reduction targets over time. Progress was meant to be measured through regular "stocktake" processes. Yet, many countries have failed to follow up on their commitments, leaving a substantial gap between agreed-upon targets and actual policies.

This lack of progress is particularly striking given the looming deadline for 2030. UNEP acknowledges that countries are still far from aligning their policies with their stated targets. The absence of the US from the agreement has also contributed to this shortfall, following its withdrawal under the Trump administration.

The implications of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold are significant and far-reaching. It underscores the need for immediate and sustained action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop technologies capable of large-scale carbon capture and removal. The window for achieving these goals is rapidly closing, making it imperative that countries move swiftly to address this critical issue.

The gap between existing policies and the goals set out in the Paris Agreement remains significant. Despite efforts from many countries, current policies are unlikely to keep global warming below 2.8°C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century.

In fact, even if all net-zero targets outside of the Paris Framework were met, temperatures would still be expected to rise by around 2.1°C above preindustrial levels by the turn of the century. This suggests that more ambitious action is needed to meet the goals set out in the agreement.

Recent data on greenhouse gas emissions has been disappointing. While there was a slight decline in overall emissions between 2024 and 2025, this reduction was largely offset by an increase in fossil fuel-related emissions. Better land-use management contributed to some of the decrease, but more significant reductions are needed.

The consequences of failing to meet these goals would be severe. Rising temperatures would continue to have a devastating impact on ice sheets, permafrost, ocean circulation, and coral systems, among other ecosystems. Human populations would also suffer from extreme weather events and associated displacement.

While the situation is dire, UNEP's report suggests that there is still time to take action. The organization emphasizes the need for countries to work together to minimize the duration and magnitude of any temperature overshoot.

To mitigate these effects, it will be essential to establish a credible return path to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This would require significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and a concerted effort from governments around the world.

The UN's latest report paints a stark picture of our chances at meeting the 1.5°C global warming target.

A new scenario laid out by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests that there is a 66% chance of keeping warming to a maximum of 1.8°C above preindustrial levels, and an even chance of returning temperatures to below 1.5°C by the century's end.

To achieve this ambitious goal, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are necessary. This means removing some of the carbon dioxide already present in the atmosphere - a staggering 320 gigatonnes by the end of the century.

This is an extreme target for a technology still in its infancy, equivalent to pulling out more than five years' worth of current emissions over several decades. However, it's not just about removing existing emissions; major cuts to new emissions are also required.

UNEP's scenario calls for a 75% reduction in coal use for electricity generation by 2035, with the fuel phased out entirely by 2040. Oil and gas usage would need to be cut by 30% and 35%, respectively, by 2040 to meet these targets.

The report highlights the significant gap between current climate pledges and what's needed to stay on track - a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2040 is required. Current pledges would only achieve a 12% cut in emissions by 2035, leaving us emitting 16 gigatonnes more carbon dioxide than necessary that year.

The UN report highlights a critical mismatch between projected energy trends and the level of emissions reductions needed to achieve the 1.5°C warming goal. While coal use is decreasing, its decline is not expected to be rapid enough over the next decade, which means it will continue to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions.

On the other hand, oil and gas consumption are projected to increase for at least a decade, despite the need for them to start declining. This trend is particularly concerning given that the data on any potential conservation or electrification driven by recent disruptions in oil and gas supplies has not yet been accounted for. The report also notes that solar and wind energy growth is not keeping pace with rising demand.

Despite these challenges, the UN suggests that limiting the impact of failing to meet climate goals is still possible, but it would require concerted efforts from countries worldwide to adopt more aggressive conservation and efficiency measures.