US-Israel Conflict with Iran Causes Economic Shock in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is bracing for a major economic shock as oil shortages caused by the US-Israel conflict with Iran continue to wreak havoc on regional economies.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), comprising 11 countries including Indonesia and Malaysia, will convene in Manila this week to discuss pressing issues affecting the region. The summit, which takes place from November 15 to 17, will be attended by US President Donald Trump among other world leaders.

A key goal of ASEAN is to establish a single market that facilitates trade and investment within its member states. However, decision-making power remains with individual nations, as no binding resolutions can be imposed on members. This economic bloc spans nearly 694 million people or about 8.4 percent of the global population.

Leaders from the 11 countries will gather in Manila for what promises to be a tense and crucial meeting. The summit's agenda includes addressing energy shortages, resolving disputes over the South China Sea, and trade negotiations.

The energy crisis unfolding in the Middle East has left Southeast Asian countries reeling, particularly those heavily reliant on oil and gas imports from the region.

Among the most affected are the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, which have been struggling to cope with the shortages since March when Manila declared a state of national energy emergency.

The war in Iran poses an additional threat to millions of ASEAN citizens who live and work in the Middle East, putting their safety and livelihoods at risk.

A narrow waterway connecting Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore is also a concern for Asian countries, as they fear that the conflict could spill over into the Strait of Malacca.

The area's strategic importance stems from its potential to host undersea deposits of oil and gas, making it a valuable resource for regional economies.

Malaysia's efforts to facilitate talks between the two ASEAN member states have resulted in multiple rounds of negotiations this year, with a final round taking place in October. Despite these efforts, analysts remain skeptical about reaching a conclusive agreement at this week's summit.

The underlying tensions and disputes between the two countries are rooted in their competing claims over an 800km border area, where armed clashes broke out last year. These clashes also involved competing claims to sacred religious sites, including the Preah Vihear Shiva temple.

The ongoing conflict has had a devastating impact on civilians, with reports suggesting that at least 150 people have lost their lives and nearly one million displaced. ASEAN members, along with key external players like China and the US, have intervened in the crisis, calling for more dialogue and the participation of third-party observers to help resolve the dispute.

The summit's agenda will also focus on pressing regional issues, including the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, which has exacerbated the Rohingya refugee crisis. ASEAN is urging member states to work towards restoring democracy in Myanmar and finding a lasting solution to the conflict.

The situation in Myanmar remains dire as rebel forces continue their fight against the military government that seized power in February 2021. ASEAN's efforts to address the crisis through its five-point peace plan, launched in April 2021, have so far failed to yield any significant improvements.

ASEAN has taken a firm stance by limiting Myanmar's participation in key summits to non-political representatives due to growing concerns about violence and a humanitarian crisis. This decision reflects the bloc's frustration with the military government's inability or unwillingness to address the root causes of the conflict.

The devastating wildfires that have ravaged Indonesia for months are another pressing concern, having scorched an estimated 2.88 million hectares and claimed at least 3,500 lives, affecting not only Indonesian residents but also those in surrounding countries like Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and East Timor.