Anthropic IPO Expected to Bring Significant Profits to Investors

Many investors are expected to reap significant profits when Anthropic goes public. Venture capital firms such as Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital have substantial stakes in the company. However, according to Anthropic's S-1 filing, none of these VC firms own a stake large enough to be included in the principal stockholders' table.

This is unusual for a tech IPO, where lead venture investors typically hold double-digit-percentage stakes in the startups they backed. The reason for this anomaly lies in Anthropic's massive private valuation of $965 billion. With such a high valuation, even a 1% stake is worth nearly $10 billion, making any single investor's holding relatively small.

For instance, Menlo Ventures' reported position of around $14 billion represents only about 1.5% of the company's value. This means that while the venture firms may have significant stakes in Anthropic, they do not hold a substantial percentage of the company's ownership.

Anthropic has instead sold large stakes to strategic partners, which are also its business partners. One such partner is Amazon, which has made significant investments in the AI company.

Amazon first backed Anthropic in 2023 with a commitment to invest up to $4 billion in the company. Since then, it has poured billions more into Anthropic, structuring much of this investment as convertible notes.

These notes are a type of debt that converts into shares upon an IPO or sale. According to Anthropic's S-1 filing, Amazon holds convertible notes with $6.2 billion in principal outstanding as of June 30, which is the entirety of Anthropic's debt load.

As Anthropic's valuation skyrocketed, the company was required to account for the increasing value of its debt obligations on its financial statements. This led to a significant adjustment in its income statement, where the "change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs" line item showed a staggering $72.4 billion for the first half of 2026.

This increase is non-cash, meaning it doesn't involve any actual transfer of funds from one party to another. Instead, it reflects the growing market value of Amazon's convertible notes, which could potentially convert into up to 1.84 billion shares of Anthropic stock.

However, there are limitations on how many shares Amazon can acquire through these notes. A cap restricts its holdings to just 12% of Anthropic's partially diluted share count, a figure that takes into account shares not yet issued, such as stock options. Amazon has the option to waive this cap if it chooses to do so.

In addition to the convertible notes, Amazon has also invested $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock through its participation in Anthropic's last two funding rounds. This investment was made by putting in $5 billion each in these rounds. When combined with the $8 billion invested in convertible notes from 2023 to 2025, Amazon's total commitment now stands at around $18 billion.

This massive investment will not only generate significant returns for Amazon through stock gains but also provide a steady stream of revenue as Anthropic continues to use Amazon Web Services (AWS) over the next decade. The company has committed to spend at least $110 billion on AWS services in this period, ensuring a substantial and ongoing revenue stream for Amazon.

As Anthropic prepares to go public, its investors are poised to reap significant rewards from the listing. However, Google is also set for a substantial windfall, thanks to its existing stake in the company and cloud computing deals. According to court filings reported by The New York Times, Google held approximately 14% of Anthropic as of early last year.

The search giant has since invested an additional $10 billion in April, further increasing its holding. However, PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes estimates that Google's current stake is likely closer to 5.6%, following subsequent and massive funding rounds. This reduced percentage suggests that other investors have also participated in these rounds.

Google's cloud computing deals with Anthropic are another significant source of revenue for the company. The search giant has secured at least $114 billion in cloud commitments from Anthropic through 2033, further solidifying its financial ties to the AI startup.

The IPO and cloud computing agreements will undoubtedly generate substantial returns for Google's investors. As Anthropic prepares to go public, these deals highlight the significant financial stakes involved in the company's listing.

These arrangements also underscore the complex relationships between tech giants like Amazon, which has invested heavily in Anthropic and now supplies it with a large portion of its computing power.

The financial stakes are high as Anthropic prepares to go public, and venture capitalists who invested in the company stand to reap significant rewards.

Anthropic's IPO will not only generate billions of dollars for its investors but also solidify Amazon's position as a major beneficiary of the deal. The tech giant has already made substantial investments in the AI startup and supplies it with a considerable portion of its computing power.

Amazon's involvement underscores the complex relationships between tech giants, which often invest heavily in promising startups to gain strategic advantages.