Saturday’s clash with SMU should be the toughest test left on the schedule for No. 10 Miami. Emphasis on “should” because, as we saw last year (and to some extent, this season), Mario Cristobal’s teams do tend to come up short when it looks like they’ve got it all figured out.
SMU is 5-3 overall but still alive in the ACC at 3-1, even after a shocking defeat to Wake Forest last weekend. If the Mustangs have any hope of returning to the College Football Playoff, they’ll need to run the table, which could be in the cards if they can upset Miami as 12.5-point underdogs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday.
Miami vs. SMU odds, prediction
The first thing to note about this game is that it is the schedule quirk for Miami.
As impressive as the Hurricanes have looked outside of a dud against Louisville, it is fair to wonder if they’ve been aided by a manageable path that has seen them play just one road game this season. And that one road game took place in Tallahassee.
The Canes do have impressive wins over Notre Dame, Florida, FSU, and South Florida, but it is funky that this will be their first game outside of the Sunshine State all season.
SMU has been underwhelming this season, but the Mustangs do boast one of the best run defenses in the country. SMU is allowing just 93.9 yards per game on the ground (11th) and 2.7 yards per carry (eighth).
The problem is that the pass defense leaves a lot to be desired.
Betting on College Football?
Carson Beck had a terrible game against Louisville a few weeks back, but other than that, he’s been money for the Canes, and is certainly in the Heisman conversation. Beck should be able to pad his stats against a defense that is giving up 7.5 yards per pass (89th) this season.
While I don’t believe in the Hurricanes long-term, this is a terrific stylistic matchup, and they should be able to lean on Beck to put the Mustangs away without too much fuss.
The Play: Miami -12.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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