We’ve yet to play a game of the 2026 MLB Season, but oddsmakers believe the AL MVP race is Aaron Judge’s to lose.
The Yankees captain is a +200 favorite to win the award at bet365 Sportsbook, implying a 33.3 percent chance of capturing his fourth MVP in five seasons. That number aligns with his price at prediction market Kalshi, which currently gives No. 99 a 34 percent chance to take home the hardware for a third year on the spin.
Judge posted a 1.144 OPS and slugged 53 home runs in 2025. He led the MLB with a 10.1 WAR.
Bobby Witt Jr., who finished fourth in MVP voting in 2025 and second in 2024, is the second favorite at +500. Kansas City’s do-it-all shortstop is a buzzsaw with the bat, but he also brings more value with the glove than just about anybody in baseball. Witt led the Majors in StatCast’s Outs Above Average metric last campaign.
Cal Raleigh, who finished runner-up to Judge last year, is the third choice at +750. Raleigh slugged 60 home runs in 2025, crushing the record for most homers by a catcher in a single season.
Raleigh slots in just ahead of teammate Julio Rodriguez (14/1) and Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (14/1) in the betting market.
Four other players, Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez, Nick Kurtz of the Athletics, and Boston’s Roman Anthony, are under 20/1.
Pete Alonso, who signed a mega-deal with the Orioles after seven seasons with the Mets, is 25/1 to win MVP in his first season in the American League.
2026 AL MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | +500 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +750 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 14/1 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 14/1 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 15/1 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 15/1 |
| Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 15/1 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 18/1 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 20/1 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | 25/1 |
2026 AL MVP best bets
It will take something special to knock Judge from his perch if he’s healthy. Raleigh had one of the best seasons ever by a catcher, and it wasn’t enough to beat out No. 99.
With that in mind, it may make sense to sprinkle some long shots rather than play the favorites. If you’re going to beat Judge, you may as well get rewarded in a big way.
Jacob Wilson, Athletics (100/1, bet365)
This one is all about upside.
Jacob Wilson put together a monster debutante season in 2025, slashing .311/.355/.444 with 13 home runs and 63 RBIs. He looked like a runaway winner for Rookie of the Year until he was caught by his teammate, Nick Kurtz.
Wilson will need to significantly pad his stat line to contend with the favorites in this market, but if he posted 3.5 WAR in his first full season, maybe he can take a leap in his sophomore campaign.
Jo Adell, Angels (250/1, Caesars)
A popular breakout candidate for 2026, Jo Adell finally made good on the promise he showed as a prospect last season.
Adell, 26, is smack in the middle of his prime, and has every chance to improve on a 2025 campaign that saw him smack 37 dingers and account for 98 RBIs.
What’s more is that Adell’s batted-ball data from Baseball Savant absolutely leaps off the page. He is among the best in baseball at barreling up pitches, and his bat speed is essentially unmatched.
A little more contact could see Adell threaten the 50-homer mark.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
