The NFL Draft has become a unique beast. It has developed into a tentpole sporting event, and as such, has created an insatiable demand for analysis, mock drafts, and, of course, betting opportunities.
And here’s the secret about this cottage industry: Nobody gets everything right.
No matter what, there will always be something that happens on draft night that nobody saw coming, or nobody had the stones to put in their mock draft. Last year, we had to wait about 15 minutes before news broke that the Jaguars were trading up to the No. 2 pick to select Travis Hunter.
While Hunter was the chalk to go No. 2 after Cam Ward, the Jaguars were a long shot to land him. That move was not the only surprise in the first hour. Very few (if any) mock drafts had the Carolina Panthers selecting Tetairoa McMillan, a wide receiver out of Arizona, at No. 8, but that’s where he landed, and it looks like a terrific selection.
And then there was the whole Shedeur Sanders saga.
The point is that there will always be surprises at the NFL Draft, and that means that bettors shouldn’t be afraid to (responsibly) sprinkle a logical long shot or two, even if nobody else sees it coming.
Best 2026 NFL Draft long-shot bet
Jeremiyah Love to go No. 2 overall (100/1, BetMGM)
The New York Jets own the No. 2 pick. They have not been connected to Jeremiyah Love by anybody really. And yet, I can’t help but think we could have another Hunter-to-the-Jags situation brewing.
There are a lot of respected prospect analysts who believe that Jeremiyah Love is the best player in this draft. In any other sport, that would mean he’d be a great candidate to go No. 1 overall, but not in the NFL.
Because it’s taboo to select a running back with a pick at the very top of the board, it’s hard to nail down where Love will land.
Betting on the NFL?
Right now, the Cardinals, who allegedly are trying to move back in the order and pick an offensive lineman, are pegged as a leading candidate for Love at No. 3. The sentiment is that if Arizona can’t move back, it will heavily consider the do-it-all Notre Dame tailback. As such, Love is +200 to go No. 3 overall at bet365.
Because the Cardinals are a potential landing spot, it would behoove a team like the Titans, who own the No. 4 pick, to consider swapping picks with the Jets to ensure Arizona doesn’t take Love. The same goes for other teams who could use the Doak Walker Award winner, like the Giants (No. 5 and 10) and the Commanders (No. 9), but we should focus on the Titans, because they make the most sense for the Jets as a trading partner.
Gang Green has been heavily connected to two defensive standouts, David Bailey and Arvell Reese, with the line flip-flopping between Reese and Bailey as the odds-on favorite as of Wednesday.
No matter what Arizona (or whoever they trade with) decides at No. 3, one of those players will be available for the Jets at No. 4 should they skip back and let Tennessee cut the line for Love.
Is this scenario likely? No. But I do think Love’s unique profile as a prospect makes it possible that we see a team throw the kitchen sink at the Jets to move up and ensure they land their guy.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
