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Yankees vs. Mets prediction: Subway Series picks, odds, best bets Sunday

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05/05/26: New York Yankees pitcher Elmer Rodríguez reacts on the mound in the first inning at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York, USA, Tuesday, May 05, 2026. Photo By: JASON SZENES/ NY POST
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For all the chatter about the Yankees’ shortstop situation, there’s just as much to be had about who should fill out the rotation once they are back to full health.

With Gerrit Cole nearing his return, there are several candidates vying for their place — and Elmer Rodriguez’s callup from Triple-A can only make that decision tougher for Aaron Boone. 

Rodriguez takes Max Fried’s place after the ace landed on the injured list this week. He’ll look to make his case to stick around the big leagues in Sunday’s Subway Series finale in Queens.

Yankees vs. Mets prediction, best bet

The Bombers’ No. 2 overall prospect has been lights out in Triple-A, hurling a 1.38 ERA and curbing home runs to only 9.35 per nine innings. 

The 22-year-old had to shake off some nerves in his MLB debut against the Rangers on April 29. Despite walking four batters and hitting another in four innings of a 3-0 loss, Boone still thought Rodriguez’s “[pitch] mix and spinning was good.”

Rodriguez followed that outing with a no-decision against Texas on May 5 where he allowed three runs and six hits in 4 ⅔ innings. 


Yankees pitcher Elmer Rodríguez reacts on the mound in the first inning at Yankee Stadium. JASON SZENES FOR THE NEW YORK POST

He failed to hit his strikeout prop in both of those starts, amassing only five combined, but I’m still bullish on his return against the Mets. Rodriguez throws a six-pitch arsenal that relies more on deception and sequencing rather than pure velocity. 

Rodriguez tossed 80 and 94 pitches, respectively, in his two starts, so Boone is giving enough leash to let the rookie work deep enough into games.  

After eliciting a respectable whiff rate of 29.9 in those stints, it’s clear Rodriguez has the upside to hit stronger totals once he’s comfortable.

The Mets can’t hit a bull in the behind with a bass fiddle right now. They rank dead last across the MLB in wRC+ and own a putrid .225/.291/.347 slash line. As of this writing, they rank third in the league in total strikeouts.


Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting


Take advantage of a low line on the 6-foot-4 right-hander’s strikeout prop after Cam Schlittler just fanned nine Mets on Friday.

THE PLAY: Elmer Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (TK, TK Sportsbook)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.

[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]

Tags: bettingmlbmlb bettingnew york metsnew york yankeesSportssports bettingSports Picks
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