One week before the biggest event in UFC history, we have a low-key fight night sandwiched between the NBA Finals.
On Saturday night, the UFC hosts a 12-fight card at the APEX center headlined by former middleweight champion Belel Muhammad.
Most of these fights are coin flips to go the distance, with half the fights priced between -140 and +120 to do so.
Below, we break down two of the more interesting fights and pick the entire Fight Night card.
UFC Fight Night predictions
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim
The former middleweight champion, Belal Muhammad, is on a two-fight skid, having lost two straight.
His loss to Ian Machado Garry wasn’t a bad accounting by any means, but his loss to Jack Della Maddalena looks much worse now in hindsight.
Muhammad is 37, so he’s hitting the end of his athletic prime, if he hasn’t surpassed it completely.
Gabriel Bonfim isn’t my favorite prospect by any means, but he’s 28 and a proactive grappler with solid striking.
This fight could get dicey for Bonfim if it stretches into the later rounds, as Muhammad has some of the better cardio in the sport.
Really, it comes down to whether Muhammad is completely washed or not.
Bonfim is the bet at +106, but if this continues trending towards him at -110, this fight is a pass.
THE PLAY: Bonfim ML (+106, BetRivers)
Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Six years ago, Edmen Shahbazyan was one of the youngest fighters in the UFC and starred in a main event in his early 20s against Derek Brunson.
Shahbazyan was undefeated fighting under the tutelage of Ronda Rousey, but five losses in seven fights severely hurt his stock.
The talent has always been there; he was just a bit too much of a wild man in his younger years.
He’s won three straight bouts and two by knockout. All of a sudden, he’s trending up to becoming the star the UFC dreamed he would be.
This is a setup spot in a co-main event against Brendan Allen, who is more or less the gatekeeper of the UFC middleweight division.
Shahbazyan is now training at Xtreme Couture, one of the best MMA camps, and he appears to be improving rapidly.
Brendan Allen is the rightful -200 favorite, but it’s hard to like this matchup for him.
Allen isn’t going to be the better striker, and he’s not the most proactive pure wrestler, an archetype that has given Shahbazyan fits through his career.
Allen has been out-struck by worse fighters, such as Chris Curtis in 2024.
This might be a hot take, and even unpopular, but Shahbazyan at +170 is excellent value. I’ll take a stab at the underdog.
THE PLAY: Shahbazyan moneyline (+170, BetMGM)
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
UFC Fight Night Vegas 118 full card picks
Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan: Nolan over 24.5 significant strikes (-115, Underdog)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna: Bryce Mitchell moneyline (-140, theScore Bet) | by decision (+170, BetRivers)
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa: Baraniewski by submission (+510, BetRivers)
Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa: Fight goes the distance (+400, bet365)
Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis: McGhee moneyline for parlays
Bruno Silva vs. Edgar Chairez: Chairez by submission (+700, BetRivers)
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler: Fight goes the distance (+105, DraftKings)
Jordan Leavitt vs. Joanderson Brito: Brito by submission (+500, DraftKings)
Jeisla Chaves vs. Yuneisy Duben: Fight goes the distance (+110, Fanatics)
Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi: Souza by submission (+780, Fanatics)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
