‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ could have one of the biggest box office debuts ever

The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) expands once again this weekend with the arrival of “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” hitting theaters on Friday, which could have one of the biggest box office debuts ever.

Tom Holland returns as Peter Parker/Spider-Man, who is trying to move on after the events of 2024’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which ended with Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch) using his powers to erase himself from everyone’s memory to protect the multi-verse.

The film — which takes place four years after “No Way Home” — is eyeing a massive opening weekend, with some analysts projecting a debut upwards of $300 million, via Variety.

The critics have also chimed in as well, with the first wave of reviews coming in quite positive with an 89% rating from 123 reviews.

While $300 million seems to be at the top of the box office forecast range, most prognosticators are eyeing an opening somewhere between $260 million and $280 million when it opens in roughly 4,300 North American theaters this weekend.

Sony Pictures, which is distributing “Brand New Day,” is eyeing a much more conservative debut between $190 million and $195 million, though most analysts don’t see it opening with any less than $250 million.

Even at the low end of the $260-$280 million range, “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” will likely surpass “Spider-Man: No Way Home” ($260.1 million) for the second-biggest opening in box office history.

It still will have to over-perform quite a bit to take down the biggest debut ever, Marvel’s “Avengers: Endgame,” which opened to a whopping $357.1 million back in April 2019.

Still, it will likely be just the 10th film ever to debut over $200 million, along with “Avengers: Infinity War” ($257.6 million), “Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens” ($247.9 million), “Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi” ($220 million), the R-rated “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($211.4 million), “Jurassic World” ($208.8 million), “The Avengers” ($207.4 million) and “Black Panther” ($202 million).

“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” is also eyeing a huge start internationally as well, with the superhero sequel projected to take in somewhere between $275 million and $300 million from foreign markets, working from an estimated $225 million budget.

If it reaches the top end of both projections, it could possibly beat out “Spider-Man: No Way Home”‘s $600.5 million global debut, the third highest of all time behind “Avengers: Infinity War” ($640.5 million) and “Avengers: Endgame” ($1.22 billion).

Still, the foreign numbers for “Brand New Day” could be much higher than “No Way Home,” since it is opening day-and-date in China, and “No Way Home” didn’t play in the Middle Kingdom at all.

Tom Holland’s Spider-Man trilogy was one of the few blockbuster trios to improve each time at the box office.

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2017’s “Spider-Man: Homecoming” earned $334.9 million domestic and $545.9 million international for $880.9 million worldwide from an estimated $175 million budget.

2019s “Spider-Man: Far From Home” improved in both the domestic ($391.2 million) and foreign ($741.4 million) for $1.13 billion worldwide.

2024’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home” — which featured long-awaited cameos from previous Spider-Man portrayers Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield — exploded at the box office with $814.8 million (third highest of all-time) and $1.92 billion worldwide (eighth highest all-time).

Holland returns as Peter Parker/Spider-Man alongside his real-life wife Zendaya as MJ, Jacob Batalon as Ned Leeds, Mark Ruffalo as Hulk and Jon Bernthal as Punisher.

Sadie Sink also stars as a mysterious new character, rumored to be either the new MCU version of Gwen Stacy or possibly even the new Jean Grey/Dark Phoenix, who would tie into the new MCU “X-Men.”

“Spider-Man: Brand New Day”‘s only new competition at the box office in wide release this weekend is Magnolia Pictures’ “I Want Your Sex” starring Olivia Wilde, Mason Gooding and Cooper Hoffman.