Saturday’s tilt between Penn State and Indiana in Happy Valley features the No. 2 team in the country trying to stay undefeated.
That team is a 14.5-point favorite against an underdog doing its best to play the role of spoiler.
If you’re just joining us, you may be surprised to learn that the two-score favorite in this game is actually Indiana, and it’s Penn State, which was ranked No. 2 in the AP’s preseason poll, that is relegated to spoiler.
We’re living in crazy times.
Indiana vs. Penn State odds, prediction
The Indiana Hoosiers are not your typical Cinderella.
This is the second year in a row that Indiana can claim to be one of the best teams in the country, and everything the Hoosiers have accomplished is backed up by a ridiculous statistical profile.
Indiana grades out as the nation’s best offense, per SP+, and ranks eighth in yards per play.
The Hoosiers have a star quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, but they’re far from one-dimensional. In fact, only eight teams run the ball more than Indiana this season. The effectiveness of Indiana’s rushing attack has allowed Mendoza to flourish under Curt Cignetti.
Indiana’s offense is good enough to win games on its own, but it is backed up by one of the stingiest defenses in the country.
According to SP+, only Ohio State has been better without the ball than the Hoosiers.
It’s no wonder that only one team (Iowa) has kept the Hoosiers to a single-digit margin of victory this season.
It’s hard to see Penn State joining that list.
While the Nittany Lions are still talented and should be motivated to win the biggest game left on their schedule at home, things have continued to trend in the wrong direction for Penn State.
Betting on College Football?
The Nittany Lions only mustered 14 points — all of which came in one quarter — against Ohio State, proving that the offense is rudderless without Drew Allar.
The defense grades out as No. 25 in the country per SP+, which is good, but you need to be better than that to slow down Indiana, especially when your offense can’t be relied upon to keep you fresh.
The numbers back up a bet on Indiana in this spot. The Hoosiers have proven, time and again, that they are one of the best teams in the country on both sides of the ball.
If you’re betting on Penn State, you’re just leaning into the narrative that this is their Super Bowl.
Didn’t we just try that angle last week at Ohio State?
The Play: Indiana -14.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
