I’m not champing at the bit to lay points in games with spreads of seven or more points this year.
Including the Giants’ 34-15 triumph over the Eagles on Thursday, underdogs that opened with a 6.5-point handicap or more are 5-0 in the last week — a trend I’m beginning to notice on the season.
Considering the Broncos are ranked No. 6 overall in EPA and the Jets rank 29th, Sunday morning’s matchup in London should be a no-brainer. I’m not holding my breath on these international games though; the underdog is 3-0 ATS in them this season.
That said, I’m also not letting these winless Jets ruin my breakfast.
Even against the porous Dallas defense, the offense couldn’t find a groove. Justin Fields was sacked five times and another whopping 11 penalties for 91 yards stunted their aptitude.
And here’s a fun fact for you in case you haven’t already heard: the Jets are the first team in NFL history to start a season 0-5 without a single defensive takeaway.
Pass.
Through all of this incompetence, someone on Gang Green who continues to be matchup proof is Garrett Wilson. He’s reeling in over six catches a game for 76.4 yards and there’s been several plays this season where you just have to tip your cap to this guy’s big-play making potential.
Wilson’s receiving prop line is set at 52.5 yards on Sunday.
He’ll draw coverage from an elite man-to-man defender in Patrick Surtain II, who doesn’t line up in the slot. I’m expecting the Jets to use a lot of pre-snap motions with Wilson to shake off shadow coverage and collect yardage from quick slants.
I’ll be upfront that there is no one between Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr., Ladd McConkey, Ja’marr Chase and A.J. Brown who crossed this line in their matchups with Surtain this season. Even with balls tossed his way against Surtain, Wilson has exceptional body control mid-air where he twists and contorts to make contested catches in traffic with a wide catch radius.
Betting on the NFL?
The Broncos have allowed one lonely touchdown to wideouts, the fewest of any team in the NFL. They also lead the game in pressure rate. Wilson is averaging 9.6 targets from Fields, so when he’s under duress, he’ll use his best bail-out option and it takes one explosive play to make a dent on this number.
Wilson has totaled the seventh-most yards before catch from Fields and is tied for sixth overall in first-down receiving.
He’s cleared this line — and his yardage prop — in four of the five games this season.
On a national telecast abroad, it’s a fair bet for Wilson to pull out all the stops with Fields as the only working cog in this offense against a secondary as tough as Denver’s.
THE PICK: Garrett Wilson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
