NFL predictions, picks for Week 11 slate

noti.group’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 11 slate.

Sunday

Commanders +2.5 over Dolphins

The Commanders should be able to win this game just by running the ball, which is pretty much their only path to victory while Jayden Daniels is out. Washington is among the worst passing offenses in the league right now, but also facing a team that is giving up 4.9 yards per carry (fifth worst). Washington is No. 19 in overall DVOA, ahead of the Dolphins (No. 23).

Packers -7 over GIANTS

This line actually went from 7.5 to 7 with the news that Jameis Winston would be starting for the Giants. I don’t understand that. Winston makes this game more volatile, but that doesn’t necessarily mean better.

I think he has been a bit glorified as an upgrade over Russell Wilson, but that isn’t reality. In 12 appearances (seven starts) for the Browns last year, Winston had 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.6 (32nd of 59 qualified quarterbacks).

Texans -6 over TITANS

This line has come down inside of a touchdown, just low enough for me to bet on it. Houston is the No. 8 ranked team based on DVOA, while the Titans rank 32nd. The Texans are favored by 12.5 on my model, but that number is contingent on CJ Stroud starting. With Davis Mills under center, I project a five-point difference in the spread, so we are still get a solid number here. Texans win by a touchdown.

Bears +3 over VIKINGS

My model has Chicago favored by three points in this game, but I still understand while they are underdogs. The Bears have won a ton of one possession games. DVOA hates these two teams, ranking the Bears 25th and Vikings 22nd. I have been a Caleb Williams fan his whole career, and have to take him here against J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings.

STEELERS -5.5 over Bengals

The Bengals’ defense without Trey Hendrickson is arguably the worst in NFL history. I think we’re getting a discount on the Steelers this week after a loss to the Chargers. They’ve made some serious changes on the defensive side of the ball, both in scheme and personnel.

The Steelers have TJ Watt and don’t need to blitz. Joe Flacco cannot deal with pressure: Flacco has 49 dropbacks with pressure, and only 17 of them have ended in a completion (41.5 percent completion rate). Yuck!

Panthers +3.5 over FALCONS

Atlanta’s defense has continued to let down after playing a bit better earlier this year. Allowing 5.2 yards per carry in their last three games is terrible and Carolina has the fourth best offensive line in the NFL right now. Rico Dowdle is going to chew this game to pieces. Panthers destroy the Falcons.

BILLS -6 over Buccaneers

Snow and rain is being forecast ahead of this game, and that could lead us to a run-heavy matchup. If I thought the Buccaneers were healthy, I’d be more interested in taking them in this spot. But no, Bucky Irving is out and their rushing offense has been bordering between mediocre and awful ever since.

The Bills are in a must-win, which isn’t the analytical perspective you’ve come to expect from me, but an angle I’m taking regardless.

Chargers -3 over JAGUARS

I don’t love the Chargers’ offensive line, but I really dislike the Jaguars more. My model has the Chargers as six-point favorites, and given the Jaguars’ struggles on offense, I think Los Angeles will do enough to snag the win and cover. The Justin Herbert MVP train chugs forward on Sunday.

49ers -3 over CARDINALS

Too many injuries for Arizona. Losing Marvin Harrison Jr. is a legitimate loss for the Cardinals and something I have a hard time backing from a betting perspective. Brock Purdy has something to prove this weekend in his return. I’ll take San Francisco.

Betting on the NFL?

BROWNS +7.5 over Ravens

This is somehow only the third home game for the Browns. In what is expected to be a very windy affair (24 MPH winds) in Cleveland, I’ll take the points. Lamar Jackson doesn’t look right and if the Browns can avoid throwing the ball that’s always going to lead to more a competitive game for them.

Their defense is rated No. 4 overall in DVOA. My model has the division game a bit tighter, with a projected score of 22.67 to 18.48 in favor of the Ravens. Make sure you get the hook. Otherwise pass. 

RAMS -3 over Seahawks

Seattle has been smashing everyone, but that won’t stop me from supporting the Super Bowl contending Rams in this absolute showdown in the four o’clock window.

Both teams are top 10 in yards per carry allowed, yards per pass attempt allowed, and yards per play. The Rams’ defensive line controls Sam Darnold enough to get a win.

Chiefs -4 over BRONCOS

There’s a lot to like about the Denver Broncos. Their defense is allowing the least yards per play in the NFL. And while my model loves the Broncos in this spot (it has this game as a pick ’em) I’m not willing to back it here.

I like the under here as a bet, which also pulls itself towards the underdog, but Bo Nix has had the training wheels on all season. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had two weeks to prepare for this key divisional matchup. I’ll take the better quarterback.

Lions +2.5 over EAGLES

Detroit has been humming and Dan Campbell taking over play calling duties is music to my (and bettors’) ears. The Lions are six in yards per play last three games and the Eagles are 21st in yards per rush attempt allowed. We saw a lot more motion and play action from the Lions last week, I suspect we get even more in Philadelphia.

MONDAY

Cowboys -3.5 over RAIDERS

My model has the Cowboys favored by four points and the Raiders are the No. 28 team in terms of DVOA. Geno Smith vs. Dak Prescott? Las Vegas can’t block much at all and the Cowboys are the “A. Side” of most key positions. Back Dallas to snag the win and cover.

Last week: 6-7

Season: 66-71

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.