The Rate Bowl features a blue-collared brand of football between Minnesota and New Mexico, who both forged different paths to the desert.
New Mexico served as one of the more compelling turnaround stories in the country.
In Jason Eck’s first year with the headset, the Lobos went from a Mountain West afterthought to a nine-win program built upon discipline.
Even if they narrowly missed a conference championship because of a computer tiebreaker, this season was a breakthrough, marking New Mexico’s first bowl appearance since 2016 and only its third since 2007.
Minnesota’s campaign reflected polarizing home and away splits. P.J. Fleck’s smash-mouth style made for a perfect record in Huntington Bank Stadium and a winless one elsewhere.
The matchup carries a compelling undertone: New Mexico has the momentum, belief, and a fan base looking to light up Phoenix in Christmas red, though Minnesota wields the experience, depth and expectations.
Oddsmakers have evaluated this synergy at 2.5 points in favor of the Gophers, who are getting lots of public love, according to our college football betting reports.
A lot of that can be attributed to conference strength, even though New Mexico played respectably against Michigan in its 34-17 season-opening loss. It also crushed UCLA, 35-10.
Let’s brush conferences aside, though: New Mexico grades out better on both sides of the ball in advanced metrics, outranking the Gophers in EPA per play and EPA per play allowed.
It finished ahead of Minnesota in ESPN’s SP+ rankings at 65th and 74th, respectively.
The Gophers bring an overpowering run game, which has translated well into the postseason: Fleck has coached Minnesota to a 6-0 record in bowl games. That plays right into New Mexico’s defensive strengths, having yielded only 113 rushing yards per game, which was second in the Mountain West.
Fleck’s run-heavy schemes aren’t converting on the road, so the offense functions under Drake Lindsey, staying efficient in the short and intermediate passing game.
He doesn’t chase lots of explosives with shallow skill support around him. That becomes only magnified now that Le’Meke Brockington has opted out for the NFL Draft. New Mexico thrives by forcing opponents to drive the length of the field to increase chances of something going awry.
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New Mexico is also dependent on its ground attack; it is 9-0 when it eclipses 80 scrimmage yards this season. Aside from some absent pieces in this game as is, Minnesota has already shown vulnerability up front in recent losses and finished 92nd overall in rushing defense.
This Lobos’ offense is built to stay ahead of the chains, limiting pressure on Jack Layne while leveraging a three-headed rushing attack that combined for 1,700 yards and 17 touchdowns.
If the Gophers can’t control them on early downs, Dropback EPA per play metrics favor New Mexico through the air over their secondary anyway.
This isn’t a talent mismatch by any means — it’s a solid Mountain West team against a mediocre Big Ten team. The burgeoning Lobos want this more, and in bowl season, availability and continuity matter.
THE PLAY: New Mexico +2.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
