NBA Rookie of the Year odds, prediction: Caleb Wilson undervalued

Day 1 of the 2026 NBA Draft is in the books after a night that featured a flurry of trading activity as the evening wore on.

The beginning of the night went as many had expected once the NBA Lottery showed which teams would pick at the top of the draft.

Standout BYU forward AJ Dybantsa was taken No. 1 overall by the Wizards, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson went second to the Jazz, Duke forward Cameron Boozer was the third pick for the Grizzlies, and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson went to the Bulls at No. 4.

The latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds don’t exactly match the draft board, though.

Boozer tops the board with +240 odds, followed by Peterson and Dybantsa (+400), Darius Acuff (+450), who was drafted seventh by the Kings, and Wilson (+950). The rest of the field is 15-1 or longer.

2027 NBA Rookie of the Year odds

NBA Summer League in July could very easily shift the odds before the season tips, but these opening lines present bettors with an early opportunity to get ahead of the market.

Rookie of the Year has historically been a straightforward award. It mostly comes down to counting stats for rookies, and circumstances play a big role in how impactful a player can be on their team.

The talent at the top of this draft is fairly equal across the board. Peterson entered his freshman season as the presumptive No. 1 pick, Dybantsa overtook him by season’s end and led Division I in scoring, and Boozer won nearly every college award an individual player can achieve.

Any of those three players could have been the No. 1 pick and no one would have blinked. That doesn’t mean they will all end up in situations that make them look like the best rookie in the NBA next season.

The Wizards should do everything possible to accelerate Dybantsa’s growth by putting the ball in his hands, but it’s unclear if that will be the case, looking at their roster.

Washington just signed Trae Young to a $212 million deal, and his reputation in Atlanta wasn’t exactly collaborative. Maybe he cedes control to the rookie, but if he doesn’t, the fit could be awkward.

Peterson is in a similar situation with the Jazz. Keyonte George is a scoring guard running point, and Lauri Markkanen is unquestionably the best player and most efficient scorer on the team. I don’t see head coach Will Hardy giving Peterson the keys to the offense.

Boozer and Acuff are walking into strange situations as rookies.

The Grizzlies have not resolved their Ja Morant problem, and if he’s on the team during training camp, the ensuing circus would make it tough for Boozer to thrive.

Acuff is also an outstanding talent, but he needs the ball in his hands, and the Kings are a mess: they still have Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis on the roster — three players who also need the ball to be effective on the floor.

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The Bulls have been on the hamster wheel of mediocrity for years and finally decided to pull the plug and tank last season.

They were rewarded with the No. 4 pick and selected Wilson, one of the most dynamic players in the draft. He has the size to play on the wing or at forward in the league and the mentality of a player who wants to prove he’s the best.

In his second game at UNC, Wilson outplayed Peterson head-to-head and told reporters that he had a list on his phone of people he wanted to “kill” on the court.

Unlike the rest of the teams, the Bulls don’t have an established best player, and Wilson could step in and be that on Day 1. I expect his odds to shorten once the season starts, and I’m happy to take him at +950 right now.

THE PLAY: Caleb Wilson to win NBA Rookie of the Year (+950, FanDuel)

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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.