The point spread is the great equalizer in sports betting and that is why so many respected bettors are unafraid to back bad teams catching a lot of points.
However, what happens when two bad teams face one another?
The Indiana Pacers visit the Utah Jazz on Tuesday with a combined record of 4-15, and the Jazz are small home underdogs.
The Pacers are a far cry from the team that reached Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Injuries have ravaged a team that appeared as though it would be an Eastern Conference contender for several years.
Utah is healthier, but did lose starting center Walker Kessler for the entire season with a left shoulder injury.
The Pacers only have one win this season but have been competitive when most guys suit up and play. I do think we have that version with Benedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam expected to return, despite all missing Sunday’s blowout loss at the Golden State Warriors.
The Jazz are a far better team at home, often capitalizing on the Salt Lake City altitude and catching opponents during a road trip.
Utah is 2-1 at home, covering the point spread (ATS) in all three games.
Meanwhile, Indy is winless on the road and 2-3 ATS in those games. However, so much of those results hinged on their lineup and which starters sat out with injuries.
I fully expect a competitive game with both teams playing hard in search of a rare win that will likely come down to the wire. Thus, I am targeting the proposition bet market to uncover betting value.
Jusif Nurkic has replaced Kessler as Utah’s starting center. He only grabbed four rebounds in his last game against the Minnesota Timberwolves but that is because he was limited to 19 minutes in a blowout loss and Rudy Gobert also crashed the glass. In his previous two games, Nurkic reached double-digit rebounds.
I think we see a similar performance against the Indiana Pacers, which lack a traditional rebounder like Gobert.
Betting on the NBA?
Their centers spend more time on the perimeter and Indy often attempts around 35 three-pointers. Nurkic should live in the paint and log plenty of minutes in a close game.
I have a 76-62-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Nurkic Over his rebounding prop of 10.5 (+116).
THE PLAY: Jusif Nurkic Over 10.5 rebounds (+116, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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