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Mets vs. Rockies prediction: MLB pick, odds, best bet Friday

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Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen working against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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The baseball gods can be ruthless.

Just when the Mets got their star hitter Juan Soto back and broke a 12-game losing streak Wednesday, they lost All-Star shortstop Fransisco Lindor to the 10-day injury list. 

But with that misfortune, the gods simultaneously present the Mets with a three-game series against the bottom-dwelling Rockies at Citi Field. 

Freddy Peralta had a brighter vision for his first month in Queens when he arrived in a trade from the Brewers this offseason, but he’s strung together a couple of solid outings

He held the Athletics and Cubs to two runs over 11 ⅔ innings in his last two start. 

The righty now draws a Rockies club that virtually has zero strengths on its roster.

After losing 119 games last season, Colorado has punched above its weight class to at least remain competitive throughout the first month. 

Mets vs. Rockies prediction, best bet

A lot of that is due to top-10-rated bullpen — even though that is not adjusted to account for the high altitude conditions of Coors Field. 

Colorado taps Michael Lorenzen on Friday. The best thing we can say about the right-handed vet is that he’s kept command of the strike zone and has limited walks at an above-average rate. 

The worst thing(s) we can say is that he is a batter’s meatball dream. Lorenzen lives within Statcast’s bottom 10 percent in hard-hit rate and weighted on-base average, which measures a hitter’s overall offensive value based on types of hits. 


Michael Lorenzen of the Rockies. AP

That can be linked to Lorenzen’s 7.48 ERA and 2.12 WHIP through his six starts.

As a pitch-to-contact pitcher, his success often depends on defense, and when that is absent, the Rockies suffer. The catch is that Lorenzen has held his own against the Mets through his 12-year MLB career, posting a 2.61 ERA through 16 appearances. 


Betting on Baseball?


And it’s not like the Mets have the bats to chase him. During their recent 12-game losing streak, they finished last in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS before Soto returned to the lineup Wednesday.

This anemic lineup ranks 29th in wRC+, as of this writing.

Yes, they have Soto’s bat back, but in no way does this lineup deserve a cent of trust right now — not even against a club that’s entrenched in irrelevance. 

THE PLAY: Under 7.5 (-110, bet365)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.

[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]

Tags: bettingcolorado rockiesmlbmlb bettingnew york metsSportssports bettingSports Picks
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