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March Madness 2026 pick, odds, best bet for Sweet 16 Thursday

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Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) reacts after the second round of the NCAA college basketball tournament.
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The Arizona Wildcats continue to roll this season after back-to-back blowout wins to open the NCAA Tournament. They crushed LIU by 34 points and Utah State by 12 points in the first weekend.

Their reward is a matchup in the Sweet 16 with the Arkansas Razorbacks, who have been rolling with seven straight wins since the beginning of March. The Razorbacks knocked off Hawaii in the opening round, then outlasted would-be Cinderella High Point in the Round of 32.

Oddsmakers opened this line at Arizona -8.5, but that has moved just slightly to -7.5 since, with the Over/Under holding at 166.5.

Arizona vs. Arkansas prediction, best bets

Arizona has dominated both sides of the ball all season. They have the top-ranked defense and the seventh-best offense in Bart Torvik’s rankings.

Defensively, only one team was better at defending 2-point shots than the Wildcats, who held opponents to 43.7 percent shooting inside the arc. Offensively, all five of their starters score in the double digits, led by freshman guard Brayden Burries’ 16 points per game.

He will be facing another dynamic scoring guard in Darius Acuff Jr., who has captured the imagination of basketball fans with his play all season but especially since the calendar turned to March.

Acuff has been on a heater over his past six games, averaging 29.8 points and 8.2 assists while shooting 46.6 percent from the floor and 51.2 percent on 3s.


Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) celebrates after the second round of the NCAA tournament. AP

Betting on College Basketball?


Arkansas is an uptempo team that loves to get up and down the floor with speed. They rank 16th in the nation in possessions per game (75.2) and second in fastbreak points (19.03). More importantly, they take care of the basketball, boasting the lowest turnover percentage in the country.

I’m looking at the first half for an edge in this game. Arkansas is one of the best first-half scoring teams in the country, putting up 42.8 points this season. The Razorbacks know they are facing arguably the best team in the nation and should come out punching first.

I think they will keep this game close early by pushing the pace and getting easier looks in transition. I like Arkansas to cover the first half at 4.5 points.

The Pick: Arkansas +4.5 first half (-112, FanDuel)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.

[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]

Tags: arizona wildcatsarkansas razorbacksbettingCollege Basketballcollege basketball bettingmarch madness 2026Sportssports bettingSports Picks
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