Best bets for Team USA at the World Cup: How far can the United States go?

There may not be a trickier team to handicap in the World Cup than the United States.

On talent alone, this is the best roster that the Stars & Stripes have ever sent to the tournament. According to Transfermarkt, the U.S. Men’s National Team has 10 players valued at €20 million or more, and the roster’s total valuation is nearly €400 million. Nearly all of the key players are plying their trade in Europe, with a handful playing key roles for massive clubs.

If you took this team’s profile and applied it to, say, Czechia or the Ivory Coast, they’d be one of the trendiest dark horses in the field.

But because of the baggage that has followed Team USA during this World Cup window, expectations feel muted. There has been off-field drama, on-field struggles, and what has seemed to be a lack of chemistry between the playing group and manager Mauricio Pochettino.

That presents bettors (and fans) with a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty scenario. Do you back the roster’s talent to shine through? Or will the team’s histrionics sink the ship?

Team USA World Cup odds

Let’s put the United States’ betting odds into perspective. At 55/1, they’re tied with co-host Mexico and Uruguay as the 13th-favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Yanks are behind the likes of Japan and Colombia, but ahead of Croatia, Switzerland, and Morocco.

The United States is the betting favorite to win Group D, but there is a slim gap between the Stars & Stripes and second-choice Turkey (+175).

Group D is the only quartet without an odds-on favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, and it is the only set without a double-digit long shot. Paraguay (+420) is third on the board, while Australia has the longest price at +800.

To call this a “Group of Death” would be wrong, but the odds suggest it will be the toughest to predict.

Best bets for Team USA

United States to reach the semifinal (12/1, bet365)

If you’re a believer in this team’s upside, it makes more sense to back them to go on a notable run. We’ve outlined how hard this group will be to top, so the +125 price isn’t that appealing. But if you think this team is good enough to finish first, as the odds imply, you may as well back them to go on a run.

Because of the new format, it’s very difficult to project how the knockout stage will look in this tournament, but the USA’s projected path, especially as the winner of Group D, looks manageable.

That’s not saying it will be easy, but the likeliest pod of teams that would stand in the way of the Yanks and the quarterfinals are Sweden, Norway, or Bosnia in the Round of 32, and then Belgium in the Round of 16.

It’s not worth trying to guess what would await the Stars & Stripes should they make the quarterfinals, but if you get a 12/1 shot that far, you’ll be chuffed.

Tim Weah to be top goalscorer (18/1, FanDuel)

Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun are the co-favorites in this market, but the price on Tim Weah, expected to be one of the team’s key attacking options, jumps off the page.

With a deep attack, the Americans should spread the goals around, which means that it may take just two or three tallies to lead the team. Weah, who scored one of the three goals by the USMNT in Qatar, has the talent and will get the opportunity to hit those marks.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.