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March Madness 2026 Round of 32 pick, odds, best bet Sunday

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Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic shoots during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Arizona in the semifinal round of the Big 12 Conference tournament Friday, March 13, 2026, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
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Kentucky magnified the definition of March Madness when Otega Oweh’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer forced overtime against Santa Clara on Friday.

The seventh-seeded Wildcats marched on with a 89-84 triumph in the extra minutes and the senior star etched 35 points into the box score. 

Now, they face the tournament’s most dangerous two seed in Iowa State, who just cruised past Tennessee State, 108-74, by pouring on a 38-point halftime lead.

The Cyclones were nearly flawless offensively, shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and generating 23 points off 16 turnovers, though guard Joshua Jefferson suffered a sprained ankle, leaving his availability uncertain. 

Iowa State is laying five points on the spread in Sunday’s Round of 32 clash, as the Cyclones look for their first win over the Wildcats in program history.

There is an overwhelming amount of public love for the Cyclones, with 82 percent of BetMGM spread bettors laying those points. 

Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction, odds

In bigger pools, Iowa State was a sharp leverage pick as it began with a six percent chance of winning the tournament, per Action Network.

This is a disciplined team that takes sound care of the basketball. They force turnovers at the fifth-highest rate in the country and boast a 49.1 percent shooting clip, where they are especially efficient off the dribble and from mid-range. 

The Cyclones also controlled the boards against Tennessee State and churned out easy scoring opportunities, but the team’s Achilles’ heel is free throws.


Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic shoots during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Arizona in the semifinal round of the Big 12 Conference tournament Friday, March 13, 2026, in Kansas City, Mo. AP

Despite making 21-of-27 in that game, season-long struggles at the line leave room for disruption — they rank 332nd overall. 

Jefferson’s status further complicates things; his absence would leave a significant gap in rebounding, scoring and defensive presence.

Kentucky matches the Cyclones with undervalued size and firepower.

Its frontcourt boasts 6-foot-11 sophomore Andrija Jelavic, seven-foot center Malachi Moreno and a pair of versatile forwards in Mouhamed Dioubate and Brandon Garrison, who contributed six blocks against Santa Clara. 


Betting on College Basketball?


The Wildcats may not be the 3-point shooting machine they were last year, but they are a transition-heavy bunch, scoring 18 fastbreak points in the first round.

I’m backing the Wildcats to cover as Iowa State’s defensive identity can be tested against a team capable of high-volume scoring, only having averaged 1.5 points less than the Cyclones this year. 

THE PLAY: Kentucky +5 (-110, Fanatics)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.

[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]

Tags: bettingCollege Basketballcollege basketball bettingiowa state cycloneskentucky wildcatsmarch madnessmarch madness 2026Sportssports bettingSports Picks
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