The betting market rarely allows a steady flow of winners or losers on a single team.
However, the outlier cases do exist, and we may have that with Air Force men’s basketball.
The Falcons are 3-17 this season and have covered the point spread just once over the past seven games.
Air Force is winless in the Mountain West at 0-9, while also serving as a conference punching bag for bettors.
The Falcons are just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in those conference games and that mark could easily be 0-9.
Two of their covers have come by a half-point and the other was by 1.5 points.
Meanwhile, their six losses have come by an average of 31.0 points.
Air Force hosts Fresno State on Saturday as a 10-point underdog with a total of 135 points, at time of writing.
The Bulldogs are nowhere near the Mountain West’s top tier but they should still be able to dominate this game.
Plus, they are coming off back-to-back losses, so it is a strong situational spot to back them.
The metrics also suggest Air Force will struggle to score.
Its adjusted offensive rating ranked 357th out of 365 teams at KenPom.com entering Friday, while Fresno State’s defense ranked 72nd.
Betting on College Basketball?
I anticipate the Falcons being held to about 55 points.
The Bulldogs lack a dominant offense but teams tend to shine against the Falcons, especially when they’re in desperate need of a win.
This should be a convincing win.
I have a 92-80-2 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is Fresno State -10 at Air Force (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
