Either the Blue Jays or Mariners will be one win away from a spot in the World Series after Friday’s Game 5.
After dropping both games in Toronto, the Blue Jays clawed back into the ALCS by taking the first two games in Seattle, setting up a massive Game 5 on Friday night.
The Blue Jays will be confident that they’ve got the edge in the starting pitching department with Kevin Gausman going up against Bryce Miller, but the odds could hardly be tighter.
Toronto is a -112 road favorite
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 odds, prediction
Miller’s season-long numbers are not what you want to see out of your starting pitcher for what is — for now — the most important game in the history of your franchise.
The right-hander posted a 5.68 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5.29 xERA and .285 expected batting average against in 18 starts, and his batted-ball data is equally as concerning.
Sounds bad? Sure. But there are some caveats.
As poor as Miller was during the regular season, he did pitch a gem against the Blue Jays in Game 1, allowing just one run on two hits and three walks.
Perhaps more impressive was that Toronto scored its lone run on a lead-off homer by George Springer, but Miller was able to settle in from there and quiet the Jays.
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A repeat performance is unlikely, but the Mariners won’t be asking the Texas A&M alum to shoulder a huge load in Game 5.
Seattle’s ace, Bryan Woo, is set to be available in relief and could take over from Miller early on and bridge the gap between the starter and the back-end of the bullpen, which was taxed in Game 4, though manager Dan Wilson said there are no concerns about fatigue.
As for the Jays, they’ll be happy to ride with Gausman as long as he can go. The veteran right-hander put together a strong outing in Game 1, but he was outdone by Miller.
It’s no surprise that the line for Game 5 has moved towards Toronto with the starting pitching matchup looking lopsided. That said, the presence of Woo in the bullpen could be an equalizer and should contribute to this being a tight contest.
If the number keeps moving, and Seattle gets to plus-money, it gets to be tempting.
But instead, we’ll focus on the Over/Under.
This is a high-stakes game with massive amounts of pressure on both sides.
The Mariners have never been to the World Series, while the Blue Jays haven’t been since 1993.
That pressure, along with a pitching matchup that is trickier than meets the eye, should make this a pretty difficult run-scoring environment Friday night.
The Play: Under 7 (-104, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
