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NFL Week 1 betting storylines, trends, movement: Bills Super bowl favorites

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The long wait is over. Week 1 is complete.

With 16 games in the books, oddsmakers already have made plenty of major changes, including crowning a new Super Bowl and NFL MVP favorite.

Here are five betting trends and storylines we have our eye on as Week 2 approaches.

Bills, Josh Allen make major moves after big win

After their thrilling win over the Ravens, the Bills are the class of the NFL in the eyes of oddsmakers. 

Buffalo is now the Super Bowl favorite, sitting at +600 to win it all at BetMGM Sportsbook, leapfrogging Baltimore and putting itself in pole position for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

They also have the best odds to win the conference (+325) and are a massive -700 favorite to win the AFC East, which is the best divisional odds of any team in football. 

Allen’s comeback performance helped him become the NFL MVP favorite (+600). 

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who played well Sunday night despite the loss, was the preseason award favorite. 

Packers take control in the NFC North

One of the biggest games of the year in the NFC North took place right off the bat. 

After opening the season as near co-favorites to win the division, the Packers got the upper hand with a convincing 27-13 win over the Lions. 


Quarterbacks Jared Goff (left) and Jordan Love shake hands after the Packers’ Week 1 home win over the Lions. AP

Detroit was the NFC North favorite before Green Bay pulled off the blockbuster trade for star pass rusher Micah Parsons. 

Now, with Parsons in tow and a win over their rival in the books, the Packers are a -125 favorite to win the division. 

Jets, Giants still have little hope

Week 1 did nothing to help the Jets and Giants’ playoff chances. 

The New York teams remain in the bottom five in terms of their playoff odds at FanDuel Sportsbook after taking losses on Sunday, with the Jets sitting at +630 to make the postseason and the Giants right behind them at +880.

Only the Saints (+1040) and Browns (+1120) have worse postseason odds. 


New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields (7) walks off the field after losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers at MetLife Stadium.
Justin Fields walks off the field after the Jets’ 34-32 loss to the Steelers on Sept. 7, 2025. Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Favorites rule Week 1

There weren’t many surprises during the NFL’s opening weekend. 

Favorites went 13-3 during Week 1, which may help those participating in survivor leagues but not those who like to gamble on underdogs. 

The Chargers pulled off an upset over the Chiefs in Brazil on Friday night.

On Sunday, the Raiders beat the Patriots in New England as 2.5-point underdogs. 

The Bills’ stunner over the Ravens made it three underdogs to get in the win column during Week 1. 


Betting on the NFL?


Chiefs are a rare home underdog

The Chiefs find themselves in unfamiliar territory ahead of their Super Bowl rematch against the Eagles on Sunday in Kansas City. 

Patrick Mahomes and Co. are home underdogs against the Eagles, marking the first time the Chiefs haven’t been favored on their home field in nearly three years, according to ESPN. 

The last time the Chiefs were ‘dogs in Kansas City was against the Bills in Week 6 of the 2022 season. 

If the line holds, it will be just the second time in Mahomes’ career that he isn’t favored at home.


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.

[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]

Tags: baltimore ravensbettingbuffalo billsgreen bay packersjosh allennew york giantsnew york jetsnflnfl bettingSportssports bettingSports Picks
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