In case you needed more proof that the 2026 World Cup is Lionel Messi’s tournament, look at the market to win the Golden Ball at Kalshi.
With over $5.5 million in volume, Messi is a 91 percent favorite to take home the award, which is handed to the Player of the Tournament.
That means the market is telling us that Messi is exceedingly likely to win the Golden Ball, even if Argentina loses to Spain in Sunday’s World Cup Final.
Spain’s captain, Rodri, is the second-favorite all the way down at seven percent.
Known for his soccer IQ and ability to control the tempo of a match, it would take something otherworldly for Rodri to knock Messi off his perch. The Argentinian legend was tied with Kylian Mbappe for the most goals (eight) at the World Cup after the semifinals. Messi is second in assists with four.
If the market is right, Messi is set to become the first player to win the Golden Ball in back-to-back World Cups.
He became the first player to win the award multiple times when he captured the honor at Qatar 2022. Messi also won the Golden Ball at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
Although there is very little use trying to beat Messi in the Golden Ball market, there is another way to play this that has some value.
Kalshi also has markets up for the Silver Ball, which is handed to the tournament’s second-best player.
Every match of the FIFA World Cup will air on either FOX or FOX Sports 1. If you don’t have cable, you can take advantage of a DIRECTV free trial to stream it all.
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A win for Spain on Sunday, which is priced at -152 odds, should make Rodri the overwhelming favorite to play second fiddle to Messi.
The central midfielder was sitting at 29 percent to win the Silver Ball at Kalshi, as of Friday.
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Although his counting stats don’t jump off the page, Rodri has been the heartbeat for a Spanish side that has, up until this point, allowed just one goal.
And while there’s plenty of credit to go around for La Furia Roja’s defensive prowess, most of the praise goes to their captain for his ability to break up counterattacks and control the tempo of a match.
The Play: Rodri to win the Silver Ball (29 percent, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
