With conference season in full swing, college basketball bettors must transition their handicapping to the grind of familiar opponents, rather than the frequent one-sided non-conference matchups.
There is also a certain rhythm to conference play, and we are still in the early stages of that. Plus, rivalries become a caveat and sometimes those can trap teams on the schedule.
In the Mountain West Conference, Utah State visits Air Force on Tuesday as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 137.5 points.
The Falcons are a dreadful team that has been spiraling for the past few seasons.
They have regressed from a pesky team with a tricky half-court offense that would routinely notch double-digit wins to a club that is getting pounded regularly.
The Falcons are just 16-61 over the last two-plus seasons, including 3-38 in conference play.
The point spread can serve as the great equalizer, but Air Force is still underperforming. It went 11-21 against the spread (ATS) last season and just 10-21 ATS the previous season.
This year, they are 3-11 ATS and are coming off a 28-point beatdown at UNLV, where the Runnin’ Rebels were missing several players who were under the weather.
Meanwhile, the Aggies are 12-1 this season, including 3-0 in Mountain West play, and are the odds-on favorite to win the conference.
Utah State ranks 39th in offensive rating, compared to Air Force’s 355th mark (out of 365 schools).
Betting on College Basketball?
The Falcons should not be able to hang around to keep this inside the number, especially because the Aggies also rank 34th in defense.
Even if a weak opponent does not inspire them, the Aggies should get by on talent alone. For context, they won last year’s meetings by 29 and 40 points.
I have an 86-75-2 ATS record in this Post sports section.
My next play is Utah State -21.5 points against Air Force.
The Play: Utah State -21.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
