We say goodbye to the UFC on ESPN this weekend.
UFC Vegas 112 will be the final card hosted by ESPN, and there’s no better way for it to go than a show at the APEX – better known as the warehouse.
Thirteen fights are all that’s left between the UFC and the Worldwide Leader of Sports. It’s a late card as well, with the show beginning at 6 p.m. ET, and interestingly enough, it will get cable TV treatment on ESPN2.
Of the fights with odds available on the “go the distance prop, only four of the 11 are projected to go to a decision this weekend.
Below, we preview the final UFC card of the year before a long hiatus that extends well into January.
UFC Vegas 112 predictions
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape
This is an intriguing flyweight fight between two contenders who hope to jump into the title picture now that former champion Alexandre Pantoja appears set to miss extended time with an elbow injury.
Brandon Royval is only a few months removed from putting on a fight of the year contender against current champion Joshua Van, while Manel Kape is a fresher face and contender option.
Surely the UFC would welcome Kape into the fold, and oddsmakers expect him to knock off a win here with the Portuguese coming in as a massive -330 favorite.
The odds opened at +200, which seemed crazy at first look and has only gotten wider as the fight has drawn closer. So what are we missing?
Well, Kape is a counter striker. Royval loves coming forward and trading with his opponents, which, in theory, should feed into a comfortable stylistic matchup for Kape.
Kape is a good striker with solid takedown defense.
Where things get iffy for him is that the scoring criteria have changed, and good defense is not enough to win fights.
Royval prefers to push the pace, and as we saw last week with Daniel Cormier (and one judge) incorrectly giving the first two rounds of Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan to Dvalishvili despite there being a clear damage discrepancy.
I think Royval is busier and more trustworthy in this spot. I’ll take the former title challenger all day long at this price.
THE PLAY: Brandon Royval (+250, BetRivers)
Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos
Once expected to compete for a title at featherweight, Giga Chikadze faces Kevin Vallejos in an attempt to get off a three-fight losing streak.
Where things fall apart for Chikadze is the takedown defense. His ability to defend against offensive wrestling is one of the worst in the promotion. His striking, however, is elite.
So if Chikadze were ever able to learn how to stuff a takedown, he’d be in excellent shape to steal a victory here as a big underdog.
Easier said than done, but let’s just say this will be my retirement from betting on Chikadze should he let me down here.
Take the massive underdog at a high price with the expectation being that he can do enough in the striking department to snag a victory.
If we’re grading on damage, all he needs to do is stay on his feet to win.
THE PLAY: Chikadze ML (+280, BetRivers)
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
UFC Vegas 112 full card picks
Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk: Oleksiejczuk by TKO/KO (+130, FanDuel)
Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charriere: Melquizael Costa over 1.5 takedowns (+155. Underdog)
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Marcus Buchecha: Fight goes the distance (+300, BetRivers)
King Green vs. Lance Gibson Jr.: Pass (short notice replacement, no props available)
Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson: Live bet on Lemos if she doesn’t get taken down by 3 minutes left in round two
Joanderson Brito vs. Isaac Thomson: Short notice replacement, bet on Brito by KO when lines are released
Neil Magny vs. Yaroslav Amosov: Amosov ML for parlays
Sean Sharaf vs. Steven Asplund: Under 1.5 rounds (-176, FanDuel)
Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos:
Allen Frye Jr. vs. Guilherme Pat Frye Jr. ML (+140, BetMGM)
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Tereza Bleda: Bleda ML (-140, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
