It’s Game 1 of the World Series, and books are anticipating individual success to come at a premium before the series takes its shape.
Total base market odds are priced modestly and the public is sure to slam them like bees on honey.
With so much unknown between unfamiliar teams on the grand stage, where can we find an edge here that carries less risk?
My answer is choosing the obvious, and that target is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
He’s available for even money to collect two or more bases Friday, which is an implied probability of 50 percent.
This is the guy who leads all postseason players with six home runs, 280 wRC+ and a .442/.510/.930 slash line.
The power is prevalent as he projects a postseason-leading .516 xwOBA, a metric that estimates the quality of batted balls without luck, but he’s racking up singles too.
Guerrero has 10 of them through 11 games — six of which have come in six games in Toronto.
In turn, he converted on two bases in four of the last five games in the ALCS and three of the four games in the divisional series.
No, Guerrero hasn’t hit as well at Rogers Centre as he has on the road — though he benefits from the right-on-left matchup he gets against Blake Snell.
He mashed southpaws for .326 and six home runs.
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When the Jays met the Dodgers in August, Guerrero grabbed three extra base hits through as many games.
I wrote on not overthinking Guerrero to cash on his bases prop in Game 6 of the ALCS.
I’m willing to double down on that notion for the same reasons — now magnified — only six days later.
THE PLAY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+100, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
