We shouldn’t be surprised to be surprised in college football anymore.
In a landscape reshaped by NIL, the transfer portal, the expanded playoff, and realignment, chaos isn’t a bug of the postseason. It’s the feature.
Very few fans, pundits, or punters indeed predicted that Miami would face Ole Miss in the final four of the College Football Playoff, but we should have been prepared for this possibility, given what this sport has become in this modern era.
The gap between the old guard and the nouveau riche is virtually non-existent anymore. All you need to do is get hot at the right time.
That’s exactly what has happened with Miami and Ole Miss.
The Rebels, who finished 11-1 in the regular season, were a lock to get into the College Football Playoff after beating Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, but Oxford turned red when it was announced that head coach Lane Kiffin would abandon ship and take over at LSU.
Kiffin’s departure was expected to derail Ole Miss, but the Rebels have used it as a galvanizing force, and are playing their best football of the season at the exact right time.
The Rebels aren’t perfect, but they can handle several different game scripts, which is essential when you’re asked to run the gauntlet in a 12-team playoff.
Tulane didn’t put up much resistance in Round 1, but a showdown with Georgia in the quarterfinals was expected to be the end of the ride for Mississippi.
Instead, the Rebels, led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, took Georgia’s best shot and survived. A two-score deficit at halftime was erased thanks to the heroics of Chambliss and some clutch playmaking by running backs, receivers, kickers, and defenders.
Chambliss, who started the season as the backup after transferring from Ferris State, had his most impressive performance of his career against Georgia, but he’s been lights out all year for the Rebels, amassing 3,660 passing yards and a superb 21-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Grand Rapids, Mich., native can beat you with his legs, too.
Miami’s path to the semifinals was more daunting, taking them to Texas A&M and then to the Cotton Bowl to take on Ohio State, and bettors have taken notice, pushing the Hurricanes to -3.5 for Thursday’s battle with Ole Miss.
On the surface, that all makes sense. Miami’s defense has been the most impressive unit in the College Football Playoff, holding Texas A&M and Ohio State to a combined 17 points and pitching shutouts in the first half of both contests.
Miami’s offense hasn’t been nearly as good, but it’s doing what it needs to do to get the Canes over the line. Carson Beck, who is no stranger to making errors in big moments, has held his nerve and kept a steady hand on the wheel to this point. Beck certainly isn’t winning games for Miami, but he’s not losing them, either.
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The question is whether or not Miami’s offense can answer the bell if the defense bends more than it has through the first two rounds. Holding the Aggies and Buckeyes to just 17 points is a gargantuan feat, but at some point, a big play will break, and that will force Beck and the offense to answer the bell.
And perhaps no offense is better equipped to hurl that pressure on Miami than Ole Miss. Not only do the Rebels have a game-breaking quarterback and terrific playmakers surrounding him, but they also seem to thrive in chaos. They’ve played some wild games this year, and just pulled off a stunning comeback against a Georgia defense that is on the same level as Miami’s.
Miami, based on its form and path to this game, is the deserving favorite. But I actually think it’s the underdog with more paths to success in this contest. The Hurricanes have proven they can be the storm, but Ole Miss has proven time and again it can weather one.
The Play: Ole Miss moneyline (+140, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
