It’s Big Ten football, and this is “The Game,” which can only mean a trench war where every yard is earned and every mistake is magnified.
No. 1 Ohio State top-ranked defense per SP+ combined with a disciplined offense has made for methodical, mistake-free football that has suffocated opponents in every high-leverage situation.
The defending champions look to keep that roll going against a run-first No. 15 Michigan bunch. The Wolverines thrive when they can sustain drives despite fragility when forced into one-dimensional or explosive-scoring situations.
Executing the formula in that profile is the only path to Michigan winning this game, but with star running back Justice Haynes out of the picture to a foot injury, the Wolverines are deprived of their most explosive element.
The Buckeyes’ front seven are ironclad, having yet to allow 100 yards to a rusher. They choke off rushing lanes to concede a meager 2.6 yards per attempt, ranking sixth in run-defense grade and seventh in tackling grade.
Ohio State vs. Michigan odds, prediction
Stalled drives, field goals and punts have been the common consolation against the Buckeyes, and even if you do make it to the red zone against them, they have relinquished seven scores in 19 possessions inside their 20-yard line.
Even though Bryce Underwood offers upside with his legs, he’s got his work cut out for him under center at the Big House. With a 9-5 TD-INT, Underwood hasn’t shown the arm strength, accuracy or passing efficiency to manufacture scoring through the air against Buckeyes spies that make first downs come at a premium.
Michigan has repeatedly failed when forced into scoring posture: They’ve scored a grand total of seven first-half points in their two losses to Oklahoma and USC.
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Ohio State counters that as the most conservative offense in college football — especially in big games. It averages 31.7 seconds per play, the longest duration of any team in FBS.
But Julian Sayin — as polished as he is — meets his toughest defensive challenge since the Buckeyes’ 14-7 slugfest over Texas in Week 1. If go-to wideouts Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith aren’t at full health, the Buckeyes’ vertical gear is handicapped.
No shock, this is a chess match of field position and clock management, yielding inherently low error tolerance.
THE PLAY: Under 43.5 (-105, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
