After a hiccup against UAB, No. 25 Memphis (7-1, 3-1) is back on track to claim the Group of 5’s bid in the College Football Playoff.
The Tigers still have plenty of work to do, starting with beating Rice on Friday night, but they almost certainly control their own destiny since their schedule features Tulane, Navy, and ECU.
The bookies aren’t giving Rice much of a chance on Friday, but there are reasons to believe that the Owls can put up more of a fight than the odds suggest.
Memphis vs. Rice odds, prediction
Rice is having one of the most bizarre seasons in FBS. The Owls were always going to be funky after committing to the triple-option for 2025, but the results have been all over the place.
Rice started the season with a gritty win over Louisiana en route to its first 3-1 start since 2001, but was pegged back to 3-3 after one-score losses to Navy, one of the other contenders in the AAC, and FAU.
A .500 record after six games isn’t going to turn many heads, but there were signs that Rice was heading in the right direction. And then they lost 61-13 to UTSA.
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That result felt like it came from nowhere, as the first six games of Rice’s season were defined by the team punching above its weight and staying in games.
Things got even funkier when Rice upset UConn as 10.5-point underdogs last week, putting the Owls two wins shy of bowl eligibility.
It seems like just when you think you know what Rice is going to do next, it does the opposite. Which brings us to Friday’s game against Memphis, with the Tigers traveling to Houston in a tricky schedule spot.
Memphis is coming off a win over USF, its biggest result of the season, and now needs to regroup for a game against Rice before running a gauntlet against Tulane, Navy, and ECU to close out the schedule. This is quite the sandwich spot for Memphis.
It’s also a very interesting stylistic matchup, as both of these teams want to pound the rock.
Only three teams (Army, Navy, and Air Force) run the ball more often than the Owls, while Memphis ranks 17th in rushing yards per game.
With both teams happy to keep the ball on the ground and let the clock move, it could be hard for the Tigers to get the type of separation you need to cover a two-score spread. Additionally, the backdoor should be open, as Memphis would be more than happy to put things into cruise control in the fourth quarter and stay fresh for what’s coming for them in the closing weeks of the campaign.
The Play: Rice +13.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
