The Oklahoma City Thunder may not have the largest television market nor a superstar who has become a household name, but they are certainly the gold standard in today’s NBA.
The reigning champions enter the season as the distinct +245 title favorites. OKC is a 7.5-point home favorite over the Houston Rockets with a total of 227.5 points in Tuesday’s season opener.
Rockets vs. Thunder odds, prediction
Frankly, Houston has generated much more interest this offseason and grabbed more headlines. The Rockets traded for four-time scoring champion Kevin Durant and will unveil a historically tall lineup.
Durant will technically start at shooting guard as one of four 6-foot-11 starters; 6-7 Amen Thompson will be the shortest starter.
Another subplot to this matchup is that the Thunder will celebrate their championship and raise the banner prior to tipoff. There have been various betting angles over the years that have made sense. For a stretch, the reigning champs often laid an egg and failed to cover as a home favorite. Lately, the champs have fallen flat in the second quarter, only covering one of the last five years.
With any trend, I try to extract an angle that would logically explain it. In this case, I could see the evening’s excitement and arena energy being consumed in the first quarter and the team not having much left in the gas tank as the game continued.
The Rockets are only 1.5-point underdogs in the second quarter, which does not sound that enticing. Plus, OKC has an excellent bench and ranked second last season in both second-quarter points per game and second-quarter average margin.
Betting on the NBA?
Houston also needs to work through some potential lineup issues. Projected starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his ACL during minicamp and will miss the entire season. Thompson is not a traditional point guard, so coach Ime Udoka may have to adjust accordingly.
I believe the best angle is the first-half total, which is 110.5 and thus provides some line value because it is less than half the game total. The Thunder often had games die in the second half last season, relying on their elite defense and halftime adjustments.
When the Rockets played both Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun last season, their net rating improved 32.7 points, which is massive. However, that double-big tandem was used sparingly because neither could stretch the defense and, thus, clogged the paint. However, Durant’s presence changes everything and provides the necessary spacing.
I have a 70-57-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, pending one play on “Monday Night Football.” My next pick is the first-half Over the total of 110.5 points in Rockets-Thunder.
The Play: First Half Total Points 110.5, OVER (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
