noti.group’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Saturday’s NFL Divisional Round.
SATURDAY
Bills +1.5 over BRONCOS
I’ll take the best quarterback in the NFL that has an elite offensive line and a top-five running back this weekend.
Buffalo’s defense is a concern, and they are far from a perfect team, but the Broncos could get back Ed Oliver this weekend, which would be an obvious boon for them.
Even without him for most of the season, the Bills average 5.3 yards per play, which is a below-average figure for the season.
Though in their last three games, that’s down dramatically to 4.4 yards per play, one of the best figures in the league.
Where this game gets dicey for Denver is their inability to start fast; they’ve fallen behind regularly.
The Broncos trailed at some point in 12 games that they won this season.
That’s such a scary way to play, but it gets nerve-racking when you’re facing the Bills, who lead the league in time of possession.
The Bills were initially favored in this matchup before sharp bettors hammered the Broncos to move the line.
I’ll buy the three-point dip and bet on the Bills to eke out a victory over a loaded Broncos team.
SEAHAWKS -7 over 49ers
Seattle’s defense at home is going to be a nightmare for the 49ers to deal with.
When these two met in Week 18 at San Francisco, the 49ers were +1.5 and got rolled by Seattle, never scoring a touchdown in a loss that meant everything for playoff seeding.
It really felt like the 49ers were never going to score despite being at home.
I suspect more of the same, where the 49ers really struggle to get moving offensively in a rabid environment.
Betting on the NFL?
The line has only moved 5.5 points after that embarrassing performance by the 49ers at home. With the 49ers losing Kittle and getting cracked in that game by 10 points (although it felt much more significant than that) I’m surprised to see this line come down from 7.5 to 7 points.
We’ll take the Seahawks to stamp their ticket to the conference title game and win comfortably.
My model has the Seahawks as nine-point favorites.
Last week: 2-2
Season: 118-125-5
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
