If you’ve followed the Knicks throughout the regular season, you probably can’t wait for this week to end because it means the team is one step closer to the playoffs.
The Knicks have traversed an interesting path since their preseason kicked off in Dubai. Aside from the high note of winning the NBA Cup championship in December, the campaign has had an air of malaise more often than not.
Games that seemed important to viewers didn’t seem as important to the players, and a season that held a ton of early promise has been questioned at every turn because of the Knicks’ bipolar performances.
It’s a bit odd to view a team currently slated to be the No. 3 seed in the East with a chance to win 54 games as bordering on disappointing, but high expectations can be a blessing or a curse.
The Knicks have three games left in the regular season, all against teams likely to be in the playoffs: the Celtics on Thursday, the Raptors on Friday, and the Hornets on Sunday.
Strong play and a healthy dose of luck could earn them the No. 2 seed and home-court advantage through the second round. The inverse could drop them as low as the No. 4 seed.
In either scenario, the expectation is that the Knicks will be the favorite regardless of their first-round opponent. FanDuel Sportsbook gives them -310 odds to advance to the second round.
Beyond that, oddsmakers are bearish on the Knicks’ chances to win a series. That offers an interesting betting opportunity.
Playoff seeding is still fluid, but if the Knicks remain third and the Celtics remain second — which is the most likely outcome — the two teams would be matched up on the same side of the bracket and face each other in a second-round series. If they fall to fourth, they would be matched up with the Pistons if both teams won in the first round.
Let’s focus on the Celtics scenario. They have -145 odds to make the Eastern Conference finals at FanDuel entering Thursday, and the Knicks are +200. Based on the current standings, Boston would need to beat New York to reach the conference finals, so the implied probability in a head-to-head series matchup gives the Celtics a 64 percent chance to win.
Betting on the NBA?
The case for the Celtics, aside from winning 50-plus games with Jayson Tatum sidelined for most of the season, would be home-court advantage in a potential Game 7. As good as Tatum has played since returning from injury, the Celtics still have less reliable depth this season than last season.
Instead of Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis causing matchup problems, they’ll be relying on inexperienced players, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh, and Luka Garza to hit open shots under pressure and provide an outlet for Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
The Knicks, for all their flaws, beat the Celtics twice this season and will get a chance to do it again at Madison Square Garden Thursday night. They were built to play against Tatum and Brown and proved that they can play at their level with their playoff win last season.
The love for Boston is understandable, but the Knicks have a much better chance to win a potential series than oddsmakers are giving them. All season long, the Knicks have signaled that they only care about the playoffs, and they have every reason to raise their ceiling this spring.
I’ll grab their odds at +200 to make the East finals, which will certainly dip if they make it out of the first round, as they should.
The Pick: Knicks to make the Eastern Conference Finals (+200, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
