It didn’t take long for Matthew Schaefer to make his mark on the NHL.
Schaefer has seven points (2G, 5A) in eight contests and he became the first 18-year-old defenseman in the league’s history to start his career with a six-game point streak and just the second rookie rearguard (Marek Zidlicky) to accomplish the feat.
An important caveat is that Zidlicky was 26 and an established pro from his time in Europe when he did it. Schaefer, meanwhile, is three years away from being able to buy his teammates a beer at a Long Island haunt.
But it’s not just the production that is sticking out for the former Erie Otter. Schaefer has already established himself as the No. 1 defenseman on the Islanders.
And it’s not like Schaefer was waltzing into a roster that was in the throes of a rebuild. The Isles boast an experienced blueline anchored by a trio of veterans — Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield, and Ryan Pulock — that has played 1,679 combined games for the club.
Yet, it’s Schaefer that leads the Islanders in average time on ice through eight games. The No. 1 overall pick is averaging 23:12 per game, nearly two minutes more than any other skater, and three-and-a-half more than the next defenseman (Pulock). Schaefer has already supplanted Tony DeAngelo as the quarterback on the team’s first power-play unit.
All of this from a player who was not a sure thing to even break camp with the Islanders a few weeks ago.
Schaefer’s early impact has been one of the stories of the season, but it’s not just fans and pundits that are worked into a tizzy about the wunderkind blueliner, the betting market has taken notice, too.
The new face of the Islanders is now the betting favorite to win the Calder Trophy, leaping ahead of Montreal’s Ivan Demidov, Minnesota’s Zeev Buium, and St. Louis’ Jimmy Snuggerud, all of whom were ahead of Schaefer on the oddsboard ahead of Opening Night.
Schaefer, who opened at 13/1 to win Rookie of the Year, is now down to +155 at BetMGM Sportsbook, putting him slightly ahead of Demidov (+200), and a tier above Buium (+800), Snuggerud (16/1), and Detroit’s Emmitt Finnie (16/1).
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Demidov currently paces the freshmen with nine points (2G, 7A), followed by Finnie with eight (4G, 4A). Schaefer, Buium, and Demidov’s teammate, Oliver Kapanen, are all on seven points.
But if you dig a little deeper, it’s clear why Schaefer is getting more love than his contemporaries. Not only is he playing nearly three minutes more than any rookie on a per-game basis, but he’s contributing in every area of the game. Schaefer is the lynchpin on the Isles’ improved power play, he’s playing on the penalty kill, and he’s often on the ice in the most pivotal moments of the game.
Schaefer was on the ice in the last seconds of regulation in the Islanders’ shootout loss to the Flyers on Saturday afternoon.
It took Schaefer just a couple of weeks to earn from his coaching staff and teammates.
That kind of impact transcends the rookie race, which is why Schaefer has seen his odds to win the Norris Trophy, which is given to the league’s top defenseman, get slashed to 66/1 at BetMGM. That’s still a big number, but it puts him in the same range as Victor Hedman and Jake Sanderson, and ahead of the likes of Shea Theodore, Jaccob Slavin, and Charlie McAvoy. All five of those players are likely to be playing for their countries in the 2026 Olympics.
Is Schaefer a good bet in either market? Probably not. But that’s not the point. What is important here is that Long Island’s teenage sensation is not just being viewed as an impressive debutante. He’s already blowing past some of the most well-regarded defensemen in the circuit.
Where is the ceiling for this kid?
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
