There’s real reason to believe that Hofstra is a live 13-seed against No. 4-seed Alabama in their Round of 64 date Friday.
The Pride opened as 12.5-point ‘dogs before heavy public action caused line movement after Crimson Tide second-leading scorer Aden Holloway was arrested for felony drug charges.
That’s aside from Alabama coach Nate Oats saying leading scorer Labaron Philon won’t be at 100 percent health throughout the tournament.
Hofstra vs. Alabama prediction, odds
Hofstra finished third in the Colonial Athletic Association before a playoff tear that was anchored by an elite backcourt and late-game shot making.
This is a real clash of completely opposite styles of basketball: Alabama is ranked fourth in tempo, while Hofstra is 317th.
The Pride wants a slow, half-court game while Alabama’s high-octane offense thrives on transition, 3s, and rim attempts.
Hofstra is built to take away the rim entirely and funnel teams into midrange looks as a top-three defense in two-point percentage. That’s exactly what Alabama avoids.
We just saw the downside of that with Alabama in its 80-79 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC playoffs last week.
Their first-overall 3-point rate per Torvik was relegated to only hitting 31 percent from beyond the arc and we saw late-game stagnation.
Alabama’s defense ranks 67th nationally, as it struggles with half-court defense and discipline.
Two things the Pride excel at are strong interior defense to limit easy buckets and extending possessions with aggressive offensive rebounding.
They have two reliable half-court creators in Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead who generate points when the game slows down.
Cruz is the go-to guard that can keep this game within reach: The CAA Player of the Year averages 20.2 points per game, shoots over 40 percent from three, and has proved he’s effective against high-major teams like Pittsburgh and Syracuse, where he dropped 36 and 22 points, respectively.
Betting on College Basketball?
Edmead, the CAA Rookie of the Year, complements Cruz as a playmaker who shoots well from deep, hitting a game-winning 27-footer in the CAA semifinal against Towson.
The Pride, having won 11 of their last 12 heading into the tournament, along with a 7-2 against the spread record as an underdog, make them plenty capable here.
THE PLAY: Hofstra +11.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
