Thursday’s Round of 64 matchup between South Florida and Louisville is quickly becoming one of the most popular games of the first round, with bettors flocking to one of the earliest matchups on the first day of March Madness.
The Bulls are 4.5-point underdogs against the Cardinals, but are the most bet-on team to cover the spread among all the Thursday games, according to BetMGM.
USF vs. Louisville prediction, best bet
Health is likely a huge factor here.
Star freshman and potential NBA lottery pick Mikel Brown Jr. has been ruled out for the Round of 64, and his status for the Round of 32 is still a toss-up if Louisville makes it that far
Brown has already missed four games since re-aggravating a back injury that he dealt with earlier this season.
He’s Louisville’s second-leading scorer, which puts a ton of pressure on his teammates to pick up the slack on offense.
Senior guard Ryan Conwell has filled the scoring void admirably with three 20-point games in the four games, and sophomore guard Adrian Wooley has seen his minutes jump with Brown sidelined.
Meanwhile, the Bulls haven’t lost since January, and their three losses in 2026 are a 106-103 double-overtime game against UAB, an 86-85 overtime loss to Wichita State and a 79-78 loss to Temple.
If the biggest question mark for the Cardinals is health, the biggest unknown for USF is experience against good competition.
Betting on College Basketball?
The Bulls have great metrics — they rank 43rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, 47th in Free Throw Rate, and sixth in Offensive Rebound Rate — but haven’t faced a team in the field of 68 since they beat UMBC in December.
That said, with Brown out of the lineup, Louisville is 5-7 against the spread this season.
Most of those five wins against the spread came against teams that were overmatched, and their win against Miami at the end of the regular season could easily have been a loss if the ball bounced differently.
I think the Bulls have the momentum here. This number has already come down from 6.5 to 4.5, but I think there’s still some value on the Bulls here to give the Cardinals a scare in crunch time.
The Pick: USF +4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
