Between the trajectories of LSU and No. 21 Houston, the Texas Bowl comes with more polarity than the slender margin oddsmakers are hanging.
LSU’s season collapsed under the weight of unmet expectations, a midseason coaching change and a mass roster exodus ahead of the Lane Kiffin era. This edition of the Tigers will not resemble what was on the field most of the season.
Garrett Nussmeier is out, forcing Michael Van Buren Jr. into his fourth career start behind an offensive line that has been reshuffled and was already part of an offense ranking outside the top 100 in early downs EPA per play, pass and rush.
Lest we also forget they did not score more than 25 points against an FBS opponent all season.
Expecting a functional offensive leap with this kind of limited continuity is not supported by anything LSU has displayed — especially against a Houston defense that was effective on early downs and forces opponents into sustaining long drives.
The Cougars sustained stability in Willie Fritz’s second year guiding Houston, improving from five wins to nine through a low-possession, high-leverage game.
Quarterback Conner Weigman’s announcement that he will return in 2026 solidified buy-in, and his production wasn’t shabby: 2,475 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, plus 644 rushing yards and 11 rushing scores.
The Tigers competed with a vicious defense that propelled them to a top-20 unit in EPA per pass and rush allowed. There are a laundry list of names missing from that group here: Harold Perkins Jr., Whit Weeks, West Weeks, Mansoor Delane, AJ Haulcy and Jack Pyburn.
Houston averaged 28.3 points per game after running to the tune of just 14 per game last year.
Betting on College Football?
I’m careful about how I think about motivation. If the narrative pulls enough weight, then it’s worth considering. Houston is chasing its first bowl win since 2022, a 10th victory in a breakthrough season, and gets LSU in a virtual home game at NRG Stadium.
It’s tough to stack that up against a Tigers program already turning the page to 2026.
All of Houston’s wins this season have come by at least three points, so this short number is attractive. It doesn’t need style points to cover; it just simply needs to be itself.
THE PLAY: Houston -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
