In the world of fantasy baseball, the closer position remains the most volatile asset on a roster.
Though elite starters and sluggers offer relatively predictable year-over-year returns, the “ninth-inning specialist” is a role built on a foundation of sand. For the 2026 season, drafters must weigh the allure of a “locked-in” 40-save season against the mathematical reality of bullpen turnover.
Statistical history suggests that drafting a closer for their job security is often a losing bet. Research indicates only about half of all MLB saves are actually recorded by the pitcher who started the season as the team’s primary closer.
The past two years, this trend held steady. In 2025, approximately 50 percent of the top 20 closers by ADP (average draft position) failed to match their draft value due to injury, poor performance, midseason trades and a rising number of managers who are increasingly abandoning the traditional “one-man” closer model in favor of high-leverage committees, making saves harder to bank early.
Using a top-50 pick on a closer like Mason Miller or Edwin Díaz in 2026 is a maneuver designed to “buy” peace of mind, but the opportunity cost is immense. In 2025, high-end picks like Devin Williams (drafted as a top-two closer) managed just 18 saves before losing his job to Luke Weaver.
Similarly, top-10 options like Mason Miller and Ryan Helsley were occasionally shifted into setup roles or traded, further diluting their fantasy value. That isn’t to say you can’t be successful when you invest a relatively high pick on a top closer, but the deck certainly seems to be stacked against it.
Data shows that though the top 360 players by ADP account for roughly 75 percent of all saves recorded by 20-save earners, the remaining 25 percent are found entirely on the waiver wire. For managers who “wait on saves,” the rewards can be league-winning.
In 2025, veteran Aroldis Chapman emerged as a top-tier value, finishing the year with 32 saves and a 1.17 ERA despite a low initial draft cost, and there already appear to be a number of options who could follow suit.
Texas’ Robert Garcia, St. Louis’ Riley O’Brien and possibly even Milwaukee’s Abner Uribe could prove to be solid late-round options for those who want to wait on closers. There isn’t much competition for ninth-inning work in Texas and St. Louis, and though Trevor Megill is listed atop the Brewers depth chart for saves, Uribe, who saw some work last season, profiles as just as good an option. And don’t sleep on Houston’s Bryan Abreu, as Josh Hader’s lingering injury concerns should not be taken lightly.
As you head into your 2026 drafts, remember that saves are the only category you can effectively build from scratch during the season. If you must spend a high pick, target “skills-first” hurlers with elite strikeout rates (35 percent-plus) rather than just a “job title,” as their ratios will provide value even if the save opportunities fluctuate. Otherwise, the smartest play is often to secure one mid-tier reliable arm and spend the rest of your early capital on the stability of elite hitting.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Ch. 87) weekdays from 6-8 p.m. and domin ate your drafts with the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
