A lengthy losing streak for US stocks is likely to continue until the Federal Reserve reveals the endpoint of its effort to tackle inflation by tightening monetary policy, according to a Goldman Sachs analyst.
Major stock indices have finished lower for seven consecutive weeks – a selloff analysts have attributed in part to investor’ fears that the Fed’s plan to hike interest rates will trigger an economic recession.
Goldman Sachs strategist Vickie Chang said stocks will likely suffer until the market gets clarity on when the Fed will stop hiking rates and taking other steps meant to bring consumer prices lower.
“It may be necessary for the market to become more confident than it is that financial conditions tightening has been sufficient and that the Fed has delivered and signaled enough tightening,” Chang said in a note to clients.
“Monetary policy has historically stopped tightening about three months before equities bottom, and shifted to easing about two months afterwards,” she added, according to Bloomberg.
The Fed has twice hiked its benchmark rate this year, most recently with a larger-than-normal 0.5% increase in April.
Top banks and Wall Street analysts expect the central bank to enact several more rate hikes throughout the year in a bid to tame inflation that reached 8.3% last month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that similar 0.5% hikes are likely after FOMC meetings in June and July.
“A shift to Fed easing is unlikely without a clear move into recession, but — as in late 2018 — a clear signal that tightening risks are receding may be sufficient,” Chang added.
Stocks have steadily fallen as investors react to the Fed’s plan, ongoing supply chain disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and other factors that have destabilized the global economy.
The Fed’s handling of the situation has drawn some criticism from prominent economists, including Mohamed El-Erian, who warned last week that stagflation is now “unavoidable” and the likelihood of a recession has increased.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen about 13% so far this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has sank about 30% and entered bear territory, defined as a decline of 20% or more from a recent high. The broad-based S&P 500 is down about 19%.
Last week’s downturn occurred after several top retailers warned that inflation was cutting into their profits. Big-box retail giant Target suffered its worst single-day loss since 1987 after a weak earnings report.
Prominent tech stocks and leading cryptocurrencies are also under pressure as investors shed riskier assets.
[Written in collaboration with other media outlets with information from the following sources]
