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Experts who predicted Covid years in advance reveal how new virus in Alabama could trigger pandemic

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Pandemic forecasters are sounding the alarm after a never-before detected virus was discovered in the US, cautioning about its potential to infect humans.

Researchers from The University of Queensland in Australia discovered the Camp Hill virus in shrews in Alabama in 2021, but only recently released their report outlining their concerns about its spillover potential.

The Camp Hill virus is part of the henipavirus family, which also includes the deadly Nipah and Hendra viruses, which rank among the World Health Organization‘s biggest pandemic threats.

Dr David Dyjack, a public health expert at the National Environmental Health Association, who was not involved in the research, told DailyMail.com a new virus like this could be ‘threatening to all mankind.’ 

He said: ‘What concerns us in public health is we have this virus with [we believe] a very high mortality rate, and if it were to mutate and transmit to a human, and attack the kidneys, as we’ve seen in some animals, that could be particularly threatening to all of mankind.’ 

The Camp Hill virus has yet to infect a human, so little is known about it, but other pathogens in the same family can cause spinal cord and brain inflammation, brain swelling, respiratory distress, kidney damage, and liver damage.

Dr Dyjack added: ‘I would say that there are three things that keep me up at night: One is a nuclear war. The second is the implications of a changing climate, and the third is a global pandemic, and the Camp Hill virus sits squarely in the bullseye of the pandemic concern.’

Other experts are less alarmed about the discovery, such as Dr Donald Burke, an epidemiologist who was instrumental in providing insights into how coronaviruses spread and infect people, having forecast a global pandemic two decades earlier. He told DailyMail.com that ‘it isn’t likely to cause an epidemic’

The newness of the Camp Hill virus means scientists have more questions than answers and its genome sequence doesn’t provide information about severity or transmissibility yet.

While it contains data that shows it may be able to infect human cells, Dr Adam Hume, a virologist at Boston University, told DailyMail.com: ‘That doesn’t tell you whether it would be pathogenic [cause disease] or not, but if it can’t enter human cells, then it does tell you that it probably isn’t pathogenic.

Dr Hume, who was not involved in the Australian research, added: ‘At this point we don’t know enough about it. Maybe someday in the future, we would be able to sort of determine [transmissibility and virulence].’

Researchers from the University of Queensland captured four northern short-tailed shrews (Blarina brevicauda) in Alabama as part of a study on mammal aging in 2021.

They analyzed tissue samples from the animals and discovered genetic material from the Camp Hill virus.

The virus was primarily found in the shrews’ kidneys, which suggests it would attack the same organs in humans.

Dr Rhys Parry from the School of Chemistry and Molecular Biosciences said: The closest known henipavirus to Camp Hill virus that has caused disease in humans is Langya virus, which crossed from shrews to humans in China.

‘This indicates that shrew-to-human transmission can occur.’

Nipah virus, which is in the same family of viruses as the newly discovered Camp Hill virus, has a mortaliy rate approaching 70 percent

Nipah virus, which is in the same family of viruses as the newly discovered Camp Hill virus, has a mortaliy rate approaching 70 percent 

Langya virus, like Camp Hill, Nipah, and Hedra, belongs to the henipavirus family. It generally causes mild symptoms, including coughing, fatigue, and fever.

Nipah and Hendra viruses can prove much more severe. The Nipah virus causes severe respiratory distress, brain inflammation and swelling, and potential organ failure.

Hendra virus causes similar inflammation and respiratory failure, as well as pneumonia.

While scientists do not know how Camp Hill virus may manifest in a human patient, they are able to make some educated guesses based on symptoms of other henipaviruses.  

Dr David Dyjack, pictured, told DailyMail.com that the threat of another pandemic keeps him up at night

Dr David Dyjack, pictured, told DailyMail.com that the threat of another pandemic keeps him up at night

When exposed to other henipaviruses through contact with infected animals’ bodily fluids, consuming contaminated fruits, or having close contact with someone who has been infected, a protein on its surface binds to another protein on the person’s cell membranes in various tissues throughout the body, including the lungs, brain, and blood vessels.

When the proteins link together, the virus pathogen fuses with the host cell and transfers some RNA into it. The virus then hijacks cells to make them replicate genetic material and produce even more viral proteins that go on to infect more cells.

There is some evidence to suggest that henipaviruses can be spread through respiratory droplets, but this is not fully understood. 

Dr Dyjack said: ‘As we saw with Covid, it was unclear in the beginning whether this was fomites – organisms on surfaces – or whether it was airborne. Turns out it was airborne. 

For something like this, if it’s airborne, that causes me great distress as a public health professional.’  

The newness of the Camp Hill virus means scientists have more questions than answers. Still, the new virus has not been seen in humans (AI-generated image)

The newness of the Camp Hill virus means scientists have more questions than answers. Still, the new virus has not been seen in humans (AI-generated image)

Symptoms of henipavirus infection come on around five days to three weeks after exposure to the bodily fluids of infected animals. It kills about 70 percent of people infected.

The infection to symptom time of the Nipah virus is shorter, around three to 14 days after exposure. It kills between 40 and 75 percent of its victims.

Dr Dyjack said the open question about how the virus mutates and to whom it can spillover to is of particular concern.

He told DailyMail.com: ‘Viruses mutate at an extraordinary rate. They may be locked up in an individual species, but over time, those mutations within the organ which naturally occur, as we saw in COVID. Frankly, that’s what concerns us in public health.’

It’s not clear whether shrews are the reservoir of Camp Hill virus or just an intermediary animal hosting it after being passed along by the real reservoir, such as fruit bats. 

If the virus were to mutate in specific ways within shrews, it could improve its ability to bind to shrew cell receptors, spread more efficiently among shrews, and survive longer outside the host. 

While some scientists, including those from Australia who discovered the virus, have raised concerns about its potential for a public health crisis, others do not believe it poses a threat to humans.

Meanwhile, Dr David Quammen, a science writer whose book Spillover quoted Dr Burke’s forecast about the next pandemic, told DailyMail.com: ‘I’m not saying the discovery of a new henipavirus is not something to take seriously. It is. 

Its typical host is fruit bats, but the latest discovery in shrews in Alabama suggests that the virus’ reach is much broader than previously believed

Its typical host is fruit bats, but the latest discovery in shrews in Alabama suggests that the virus’ reach is much broader than previously believed

‘It could be concerning. But at this point, if it’s just been found in a shrew in Alabama, it’s not concerning.’

He added: ‘The news we get every day about bird flu is much, much more concerning to me than the news of a henipavirus in shrews in Alabama.’

In 2018, the WHO identified nine priority diseases (listed) that pose the biggest risk to public health. Henipaviruses, which include Camp Hill and Nipah, were among the most threatening

In 2018, the WHO identified nine priority diseases (listed) that pose the biggest risk to public health. Henipaviruses, which include Camp Hill and Nipah, were among the most threatening

Still, Dr Dyjack believes the US has ‘the right conditions here for the next pandemic.’ 

He said: ‘We have a mammal carrying a virus in which there is no vaccination, we are not necessarily surveilling for this virus, in which case the clinical community is not prepared for it. 

‘And so the conditions under which perhaps it could be transmitted to a human through a horse or a pig or something, and then for it to exist in a human population without actually being detected for a while exists in the US right now.’

When exposed to other henipaviruses, a protein on its surface binds to another protein on the person’s cell membranes in various tissues throughout the body, including the lungs, brain, and blood vessels.

When the proteins link together, the virus pathogen fuses with the host cell and transfers some RNA into it. The virus then hijacks cells to make them replicate genetic material and produce even more viral proteins that go on to infect more cells.

Dr Dyjack added: ‘There’s more that we don’t know than we know as it relates to public health, as tissue and human health. On the face of it, that is alarming, particularly since it has been identified within the homeland.’

[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]

Tags: Alabamaasiaaustraliadailymailhealth
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