Narratives play a role in all handicapping but the uncertainty is the degree.
Math modelers will insist they are impossible to quantify and the betting market already has them baked into the odds. However, conventional bettors usually weigh them a significant amount.
Perhaps no narrative carries more weight than revenge, which is highlighted during college basketball conference rematches. And we have a classic example in the West Coast Conference on Wednesday.
No. 9 Gonzaga hosts Portland as a 26.5-point favorite with a total of 149.5 points.
Earlier this month, the Pilots upset the Bulldogs as a 22.5-point home underdog, handing the Zags just their second loss this season.
The Pilots are just 12-17 overall and 5-11 in conference play. It was an embarrassing performance by a Gonzaga team that hopes to make a Final Four run.
Gonzaga has since won and covered the next four games so I believe it will respond in proper fashion with a revenge opportunity. But how much is already accounted for that in the hefty point spread? At some point the market adjusts too much and the spread is too high.
My initial analysis thought Gonzaga might have a distinct edge in the first half where the motivation might be more pronounced, figuring to play with more intensity and urgency. However, sometimes the opponent only has enough to hang around for a half and then runs out of gas.
I have a 99-83-2 record against the spread in this Post sports section, pending a play Tuesday. My next pick is Gonzaga laying 26.5 points in an expected blowout (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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