It’s always chaotic in Conference USA, but the introduction of several new teams in the past few seasons has really added to the funk.
The conference now features 12 teams, including two newbies this year: Delaware and Missouri State.
The Blue Hens and Bears are ineligible to make the C-USA Championship or go to a bowl game this season, but they’re still making an impact on the landscape.
Missouri State is 3-3 overall and 1-1 in conference play, and has a chance to end New Mexico State’s hopes of making a run to the title game with a win Wednesday night in Las Cruces.
Missouri State vs. New Mexico State odds, prediction
It’s not all that often we get a matchup between two teams as evenly matched as this.
No matter how you shake it, Missouri State and New Mexico State seem to be the perfect foil for one another.
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, Missouri State is the 123rd-best team in FBS, boasting the 105th-best offense, 124th-best defense and 117th-best special teams unit.
New Mexico State is a shade better at 122nd overall, with the 120th-best offense, 110th-best defense and their special teams ranking 81st.
Using SP+ as a guide, the projected spread between the Aggies and Bears would be NMSU -0.3.
It’s no wonder that the moneyline for this game is currently sitting as a dead pick’em, with both teams being offered at -108.
You don’t get many games that look like this, especially when they feature two teams near the bottom of the ladder in college football.
A game like this is tricky to handicap, but the angle to lean into is that New Mexico State’s offense does seem to be improving, and the Aggies do enjoy playing in front of their fans in Las Cruces.
After averaging 18 points per game in their first three contests of the season — including one against Bryant — the Aggies have ticked up to 28 points per showing in their last three tilts.
Betting on College Football?
Missouri State’s offense has been uninspiring all season, which makes it hard to envision a path to success for the Bears if the Aggies are clicking when they have the ball.
It’s a coin flip, but I’ll ride with NMSU at home.
The Play: New Mexico State (-108, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
