Oh, what could have been.
At the beginning of the campaign, Friday’s clash between Clemson and Louisville looked like it could have been one of the most pivotal of the season. Not anymore.
The Tigers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, while Louisville’s hopes of making it to the ACC Championship were considerably dimmed with a shocking loss to Cal in Week 11.
The Cardinals can still get there by running the table and getting some help, but that is a long shot.
Clemson vs. Louisville odds, prediction
The odds often tell a story, and that seems to be the case Friday night.
No. 20 Louisville (7-2, 4-2) is just a 2.5-point favorite at home over Clemson, despite the Tigers being just 4-5 on the season with losses to Duke, Syracuse and Georgia Tech.
Most bettors agree that home-field advantage in college football is worth about three points to the spread, so the market is essentially telling us that a game between these two ACC rivals would be a coin flip on a neutral field.
That seems a bit disrespectful to Louisville, even after what we saw against Cal in Week 11.
The Cardinals are not world-beaters, but they grade out better than Clemson on both sides of the ball.
According to SP+, Bill Connelly’s catch-all metric, Louisville is the 26th-best team in FBS, boasting the No. 37-ranked offense and a defense that checks in at 27.
Clemson is ranked 41st overall, per SP+, with the offense sitting outside the top 50 at No. 55, and the defense only marginally better at No. 41.
So, what’s going on here?
Betting on College Football?
This seems to be a classic case of a team’s preseason pedigree affecting the market, even after 11 weeks of play. Clemson has proven time and again that it is pedestrian and is getting far too much respect on the road against a better team.
Louisville should be getting more love Friday night.
The Play: Louisville -2.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
