Chelsea have yet to lose a match in the Premier League, but you’d still have to say it’s been a disappointing start with two wins and two draws from their first four games.
The Blues were buoyant after a splashy summer of signings, plus a triumph at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, but they didn’t take advantage of a relatively soft schedule out of the gate.
Chelsea bookended runaway wins over West Ham and Fulham with draws against Crystal Palace and Brentford, allowing Liverpool to build a four-point edge over the Blues in the table.
A tricky few weeks now lie ahead of Chelsea, starting with a tussle with Bayern Munich in Germany on Wednesday.
Chelsea vs. Bayern Munich odds, prediction
It’s been a dominant start to the Bundesliga season for Bayern Munich.
The Bavarians have an unblemished record through three matches, and they’ve outscored their opponents, 14-2, in that span.
The underlying numbers suggest that Bayern’s offensive output will regress, but the defensive metrics are terrific. Vincent Kompany’s side has conceded just 1.6 expected goals (xG) through three matches in the Bundesliga to date.
The caveat is that Bayern has yet to face a club of Chelsea’s caliber this season.
Of course, the same logic can be applied to Chelsea.
While the Blues boast a strong statistical profile in the Premier League, they’ve played four teams destined for middling seasons, so it’s hard to lean into the positive regression angle considering the opposition.
The one thing that does stick out for both clubs is their defensive prowess in the early going.
Chelsea has allowed just three goals, 3.92 expected goals, and kept two clean sheets in the Premier League. Only AC Milan has conceded fewer xG than Bayern in Europe’s Big 5 Leagues this season.
There’s plenty of offensive firepower on these rosters, but the defenses should drive the bus on Wednesday.
The Play: Under 2.5 goals (+156, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
