Can Manny Pacquiao defeat Floyd Mayweather Jr. in the rematch?

The announcement that Floyd Mayweather Jr. will fight Manny Pacquiao in a rematch of their 2015 “Fight of the Century” made the headlines on Monday. 

The fight is scheduled for September 19 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, with both men pushing 50. Their first fight was coined “Better never than late,” and their rematch is even more indicative of that. It’s the sequel literally nobody asked for. 

But since the fight is taking place, it’s worth looking at who will win the bout. 

Mayweather Jr. opened up as a -225 favorite according to oddsmakers, slightly down from the -250 favorite he opened at during their first fight in 2015. 

The ghosts of that first fight still hover over this rematch like cigar smoke inside the MGM Grand. On that night, Mayweather Jr.’s infamous defense-oriented strategy won by unanimous decision. Pacquiao later blamed a torn shoulder. Critics rolled their eyes. History moved on.

Now history circles back.

The case for Mayweather is obvious. His IQ is timeless. His reflexes were never based on brute force. His entire style—shoulder roll, potshot right hands, control of distance, counter punches—was designed to age gracefully. Even at 49, he will likely dictate tempo, frustrate exchanges, and dare Pacquiao to lunge. If this becomes a slow chess match, Mayweather wins again. He always does.

On the other hand, Pacquiao has been more active. In 2025, he stepped in with Mario Barrios, a reigning world champion 16 years younger, and many believe he deserved that decision. He looked fast. Not vintage-2009 fast, but fast enough. His angles were sharper than expected. His engine still roared in the championship rounds. Meanwhile, Mayweather hasn’t fought professionally since dismantling Conor McGregor in 2017. Exhibitions are not wars. That’s the biggest difference. 

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters

If Pacquiao is going to win the rematch, he cannot chase ghosts. He must attack the body early, force exchanges, double and triple the jab, and turn this into a fight instead of a fencing match. He cannot allow Mayweather to coast behind counters. Aggression and volume will be his weapon. At 47, his legs must be younger than Mayweather’s for 36 minutes. 

Nobody wanted this fight, but just imagine for a second why the world will tune in and what would happen if Pacquiao actually wins. If Pacquiao can hand Mayweather his first professional loss at nearly 50 years old, it detonates the sport’s mythology. It doesn’t erase their first fight in 2015, but it reframes it. It turns Pacquiao from beloved warrior to avenging legend. It adds a final, defiant chapter to a career already carved in granite.

Can he do it?

Logic says no. Momentum whispers maybe. But the sport of boxing, cruel and beautiful as it is, has never cared much for logic.