It’s that magical time of the year again.
Soon, there will be an NCAA Tournament bracket. Sixty-eight teams sharing the same dream: To cut down the nets in Indianapolis.
Before the pairings are announced Sunday night, noti.group’s Zach Braziller gets you ready for Selection Sunday below:
The No. 1s
The top seeds are the easiest part of projecting the draw. Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida should be pretty safe bets to land No. 1 seeds. They have been atop almost every bracketologists’ seed list for quite some time.
It was only recently that Florida jumped Connecticut for the final No. 1, after the Huskies lost at home to Big East also-ran Creighton, then dropped another game to under-.500 Marquette.
The Gators, meanwhile, have won 17 of 19 games in a far superior conference.
While UConn did beat Florida head-to-head in early December, the Gators have been the more consistent team over the last two-plus months against better competition, and both teams lost in lopsided fashion on Saturday. Florida also has five more Quad 1 wins, the highest caliber of victory based on NET ratings — the sorting tool the selection committee uses to evaluate teams.
As for the overall No. 1 seed, Duke has the best case.
The Blue Devils are a combined 23-2 in Quad 1 and 2 games, and have victories over Michigan and Florida. I don’t think the season-ending loss of starting point guard Caleb Foster will be held against them, because Duke still won the ACC Tournament without him, and it is expected to get back center Patrick Ngongba II for the NCAA Tournament.
Bubble breakdown
Could the selection committee really pass on a team that went undefeated during the regular season? Most experts believe Miami (Ohio) is safe despite losing in the Mid-American Conference Tournament quarterfinals. It’s no lock, however. The RedHawks’ strength of schedule is incredibly weak, ranked 269th according to Ken Pomeroy. Of their 28 Division I wins, 15 are of the Quad 4 variety.
The MAC program is only one-half of the most intriguing aspect of Sunday night’s reveal. The other half is Auburn.
The Tigers are the polar opposite of Miami. They played the country’s third-toughest schedule. They have wins over the SEC (Florida) and Big East (St. John’s) regular-season champions. But Auburn also has a whopping 16 losses. No team has ever received an at-large with that many defeats.
Adding to the drama, former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl will be part of the CBS selection show. Pearl retired in September, and helped his son, Steven, land the job — the first head coaching position of his career.
Other teams on the cut-line, like Oklahoma and Texas of the SEC, SMU of the ACC, VCU of the Atlantic 10 and San Diego State of the Mountain West, have to be wary of a bid-stealer — a team that would not be headed to the dance unless it wins its conference tournament. The Atlantic 10 (Dayton) could shrink the bubble by one.
Local landscape
Three teams are going dancing: Big East regular season and tournament champion St. John’s, CAA Tournament champion Hofstra and Northeast Conference regular season and postseason champion LIU.
Let’s start with the Johnnies. After Saturday’s rout of Connecticut in the Big East Tournament final, they have a case for a four-seed with a gaudy 28-6 record and two wins over the Huskies. Only four Quad 1 wins is somewhat of a hindrance, but they certainly look like a team deserving of being a No. 4, especially with top-15 résumé metrics.
Hofstra, preparing to play its first tournament game since 2001, could wind up as high as a No. 12 seed. A NET ranking of 88 is helpful, as are road wins over Syracuse and Pittsburgh of the ACC.
Most significantly, regular-season mid-major champions like Belmont and Stephen F. Austin losing in their conference tournament could elevate the Pride into the aforementioned seed. It would also help Hofstra if Yale of the Ivy League drops its title game Sunday.
LIU rounds out the trio. The NEC representative almost always gets sent to Dayton for the First Four. That has happened in each of the last 12 tournaments. Could the Sharks buck that trend and avoid the play-in round? The school’s 24 wins, its most since the 2011-12 campaign, are significant.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
