The headliners for Week 1 of the college football season are obvious.
Texas visits Ohio State in a matchup between the preseason favorite and the defending champs. LSU takes on Clemson in a battle between two top-10 teams looking to make a statement out of the gates. And there’s also the blue-blood battle between Alabama and Florida State.
One game that is flying under the radar, but could have massive implications when it comes time to fill out the field for the 12-team College Football Playoff, is Boise State vs. South Florida.
The Broncos, fresh off their trip to the tournament last year, are 6-point favorites over the Bulls, who are a trendy pick to win the AAC Title, which would put them in the running for the Group of 5 bid to the dance.
And while a loss for either side wouldn’t eliminate them from the playoff picture, it would put them pretty far behind the 8-ball right out of the gate.
Boise State vs. USF odds, prediction
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | -6 | -245 | Over 63 (-110) |
| South Florida | +6 | +200 | Under 63 (-110) |
Boise State lost all-world running back Ashton Jeanty to the NFL, but the Broncos remain the cream of the crop in the Group of 5, at least until proven otherwise.
The defending Mountain West champs will be confident that the Jeany-sized hole in the offense will be plugged by committee, with former Fresno State tailback Malik Sherrod and Sire Gaines forming a strong duo in support of quarterback Maddux Madsen.
Madsen is coming off a strong season in 2024, but without the security blanket of Jeanty, he’ll be forced to be the headliner for Spencer Danielson’s bunch.
Even without Jeanty, the Broncos are projected to be the 15th-best offense by SP+ in 2025.
The defense is projected to be worse according to Bill Connelly’s catch-all metric, but the ceiling could be quite high for a unit that is importing a couple of former blue-chip recruits who couldn’t stick at massive programs like Ohio State and Notre Dame.
South Florida comes into the 2025 campaign with raised expectations after two encouraging seasons under head coach Alex Golesh. An overall record of 14-12 in two campaigns may not jump out at you, but considering that the Bulls went 8-37 and fired two coaches between 2019 and 2022, you can understand why there is optimism about what Golesh is building in Tampa.
Betting on College Football?
The big-picture view of this season does look chipper for USF, thanks to an experienced roster (the Bulls rank 11th in the country in returning production), but this looks like a real stiff test out of the gates.
USF really struggled to prevent big plays on defense last year, and that’s a recipe for disaster against the Broncos, who still have playmakers all over the field on offense.
The high Over/Under tells us that there should be plenty of chances to break this game wide open, and in that kind of environment, I’ve got no issue with laying the wood with the Broncos, as long as it stays under a touchdown.
The Play: Boise State -6.5 or better (-6,105, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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