College football fans will be spoiled for choices Saturday, but it’s hard to find a more meaningful game than the 7:30 p.m. ET kick between Florida and No. 3 LSU.
It is not hyperbolic to call this a must-win game for the Gators, who travel to Baton Rouge as 7.5-point underdogs.
After losing to South Florida in Week 2, the pressure on Billy Napier and Florida is immense.
A loss to LSU would essentially wipe out any chance that the Gators had at crashing the College Football Playoff party.
Florida vs. LSU odds, predictions
As for LSU, you couldn’t have scripted a better start to the campaign.
The Bayou Bengals scored one of the biggest wins of the season to date in Week 1 when they took down Clemson, a result that immediately established Brian Kelly’s team as a legitimate contender.
However, Clemson struggled against Troy in Week 2, so there is some debate as to whether that win will hold much weight by season’s end.
Nonetheless, a win is a win, and the Tigers also scored one of the ho-hum variety in Week 2 over Louisiana Tech.
Perhaps the most notable development in both results was that LSU’s defense has answered the bell.
After struggling to stop anyone in 2023, the Tigers took a step forward in Blake Baker’s first year as defensive coordinator in 2024, and the early signs in 2025 point to more improvement.
Betting on College Football?
That could be massive, because LSU’s offense has all the potential in the world behind Heisman-hopeful quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
Florida’s quarterback, DJ Lagway, also had his eyes on the Heisman before the season started, but he wasn’t at his best against USF in a shocking loss.
Lagway proved to be the goods in 2024, but there’s an incredible amount of pressure on him to step up on Saturday night in one of the most hostile environments in the football universe.
As difficult as that sounds, Lagway and the Gators did show quite a bit of resiliency in 2024, and you can lean into that if you’re looking for a nudge to get yourself to the window as a Florida backer.
That said, the best path to the window for this game is a play on the first-half Under.
Not only do I expect a cagey performance from the Gators in the early going as they deal with the pressure and the environment, but the LSU offense has yet to click into gear in two games.
Nussmeier and the Tigers will likely figure it out eventually, but don’t be shocked if this is a slugfest in the early going.
The Play: 1H Under 23.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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