ALCS picks, odds, best bets

Seattle is having a sports moment.

Fresh off a win to take a 1-0 ALCS series lead, the Mariners will send another stud pitcher to the mound in Logan Gilbert in hopes of taking full control of a World Series berth.

The Toronto Blue Jays will counter with perhaps their top arm in youngster Trey Yesavage.

It’s just his fifth career start, but the betting market is really bullish on a strong performance from Yesavage after he roasted the Yankees for 11 strikeouts in his first career playoff start.

Toronto is a -129 favorite, according to the oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Yesavage certainly looks to be one of those young, exciting arms that will get plenty of buzz as an AL Rookie of the Year favorite come March.

But making him the favorite in a must-win road start seems a bit too far for me.

BetMGM is projecting his over/under record at 14.5 total outs, which he has achieved in all but one career start in his short career.

Still, it’s a big spot, and I’m fading the rookie up and down here, projecting value on the Mariners to take a 2-0 series lead.

I believe Toronto is overvalued because they were a nightmare contract first matchup against the Yankees, who couldn’t strike them out much.

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If you take away the innings qualifier, as Gilbert missed considerable time due to injury this year, the Mariners right-hander led the MLB in strikeouts per nine innings with an insane 11.89 K/9.

That should feed right into the Mariners’ hands Monday evening, and that’s why I’m taking Seattle to secure a commanding 2-0 series lead.

THE PLAY: Mariners moneyline (+117, BetRivers)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.